tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-66717129553758825822024-03-13T06:38:31.072+00:00Real Financial Spread Bettingthis blog NOT recommendation or advice to carry out these trades. Spread betting is a highly risky form of trading and you should NOT engage in this form of trading unless you understand the nature of the transaction you are entering into and the true extent of your exposure to the risk of loss.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger145125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-49749415050466397152012-06-12T20:05:00.001+01:002012-06-12T20:05:59.852+01:00Long AMZN (but only for a bit!)Yes, I'm not proud of myself - I had a little punt on Amazon. I note the market was rising but AMZN was stuck and looking at the 10 minute chart I noted a nice little ascending triangle. I also noted that in a recent article Amazon is apparently one of the <a href="http://beta.fool.com/stockcroc1/2012/06/07/hedge-fund-industrys-biggest-shorts/5422/">most heavily shorted hedge fund stocks</a>. I checked the <a href="http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/amzn/short-interest">NASDAQ short interest web page</a> and it still would take over 2 days to cover.<br>
Of course when I clicked the buy button I was reminded of why I don't usually bet on this stock. An immediate 20 point spread. Nasty.<br/><br/>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh8LxozWzFDGSA0i69uvHX9-9PDwMOy8RgMlxw18Ig106vemOdfT0AlmZww0aoD-WykFb6uUhAaHwRhsCRKDdLNAdSp2IJTWxvZ3Au7LNu36lLz9wqbWrA1-jd5VbOVnTMlqn-j0WIoLkO/s1600/amzn_120612.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="268" width="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh8LxozWzFDGSA0i69uvHX9-9PDwMOy8RgMlxw18Ig106vemOdfT0AlmZww0aoD-WykFb6uUhAaHwRhsCRKDdLNAdSp2IJTWxvZ3Au7LNu36lLz9wqbWrA1-jd5VbOVnTMlqn-j0WIoLkO/s400/amzn_120612.gif" /></a>
Still got very, very lucky and there was a quick breakout from the triangle on the long side so I booked my profit and swore not to touch Amazon again!<br><br>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN7f5LYtwSIyjJX3zfSK5yde2TYPy7IUH1S9g09_oHw4x0pQKYgX-8VZoqypWC5YrHBjE1VMMnMF7kJ8_q0-m50uLknFjJCjUxFz8lRXghZCLXMbZePy_1nL2O9g3pTphcjIVTTpUQ3l-Q/s1600/trade_history_120612.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="31" width="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgN7f5LYtwSIyjJX3zfSK5yde2TYPy7IUH1S9g09_oHw4x0pQKYgX-8VZoqypWC5YrHBjE1VMMnMF7kJ8_q0-m50uLknFjJCjUxFz8lRXghZCLXMbZePy_1nL2O9g3pTphcjIVTTpUQ3l-Q/s400/trade_history_120612.gif" /></a>
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P/L 28.50Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-37200031992004641972012-06-12T08:53:00.000+01:002012-06-12T08:53:40.808+01:00Close Gold whole postionI've decided to close my whole gold position. I don't like the way it's hanging around at the moment. I feel that whatever the result of the Greek elections it's not going to be good for commodities so better to be out of the market. QE is the thing we're looking and now this may happen at the 19th-20th June Fed meeting. It's election year and Obama will undoubtedly be exerting pressure on Ben for a quick fix to juice the markets going into November.<br>
<br>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidZFDGKEnB8uGGoxHHbTCv7jjCXQyvjLwpGt6-3ZD1TFwHqSy_9RYcfVZs0U2zGy0YTiv_JUze8RfP-ZbpnC8kjm6DJubayzYPNLgPDaxBvMVM-BxoYZ9RTvC5gQoKWXhvV26gUdDtCu3x/s1600/close_gold_120612.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="28" width="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidZFDGKEnB8uGGoxHHbTCv7jjCXQyvjLwpGt6-3ZD1TFwHqSy_9RYcfVZs0U2zGy0YTiv_JUze8RfP-ZbpnC8kjm6DJubayzYPNLgPDaxBvMVM-BxoYZ9RTvC5gQoKWXhvV26gUdDtCu3x/s400/close_gold_120612.gif" /></a>
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P&L -23
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I was a bit annoyed at missing out on a shorting oppotunity when the market jumped after the Spanish bailout agreement. I was racking my brains trying to think of a similar scenario that happened before where I'd made a small profit in such circumstances but couldn't remember and didn't write it down so I didn't do anything. However, now I remember - it was when Bin Laden was assassinated. The market jumped up irrationally then and I was able to short it. Just goes to show how important it is to keep notes.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-24400131074506973342012-06-11T11:05:00.000+01:002012-06-12T08:30:03.594+01:00Update on Gold postionRight, so as I said it's a "warts and all" record of my trading experiences. I recently added to my gold position earlier today perhaps a little to early but anyway here's how it looks. Not pretty at the moment I grant you.<br>
<br>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVBllMctgU2QBQgp91S7BsMo05mqgxIReyPJkhmDZe_GH5T-mI5VCUu1WiTlpNLFxEXuEmpscRAispX9yS1pyZUMbrajYI3ipLfigoU4fMCrN2f6Dh0Era2SHNAoP1fDMjcrJzVDa8ZQn8/s1600/gold_update_110612.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="211" width="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhVBllMctgU2QBQgp91S7BsMo05mqgxIReyPJkhmDZe_GH5T-mI5VCUu1WiTlpNLFxEXuEmpscRAispX9yS1pyZUMbrajYI3ipLfigoU4fMCrN2f6Dh0Era2SHNAoP1fDMjcrJzVDa8ZQn8/s400/gold_update_110612.gif" /></a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-33426761468983437092012-06-11T10:59:00.000+01:002012-06-11T11:00:13.695+01:00Bear Flag US Crude?Despite my positive view on US Crude looking at the charts I have to wonder if there is a bear flag forming. I don't go in for a lot of technical analysis but in the past I have found bull and bear flags to be quite powerful formations. Overnight US Crude gapped up over 200 ticks from my cash in point last Friday. For a few minutes of faint regret at about 11:30pm last night having thought for a few minutes on Friday just putting in a stop at about +120 my feeling is that if you can get 50% of a move then that's pretty good and over a weekend you can never really tell what's going to happen.<br>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3oDLBpg7MNhgvg2K7oeRUfQZ92z7lkdG3MCBTVFxi2JvnkBy2VIXLW_PK2lRfpfepC5xR2a99rhvSyPOy8-V25CfPNSU5jX6oxiiSHYRqE9wntwEvS1UoNmilQLXjACQ5RKw0ROfcms1Y/s1600/crude_bear_flag110612.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="311" width="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3oDLBpg7MNhgvg2K7oeRUfQZ92z7lkdG3MCBTVFxi2JvnkBy2VIXLW_PK2lRfpfepC5xR2a99rhvSyPOy8-V25CfPNSU5jX6oxiiSHYRqE9wntwEvS1UoNmilQLXjACQ5RKw0ROfcms1Y/s400/crude_bear_flag110612.gif" /></a><br/>
If this bear flag plays out we could see a drop in Crude to 75-70 area.
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I suppose it all hinges on the Greek election on 17th June. No doubt the Greeks will vote for whatever political entity that will promise the end of austerity politics and allow the party of early retirement, easy benefits and to continue. Sorry, but in the UK 70% of my aquaintances are basically socialists, even the ones who aren't(!), who think that cutting government debt is the incorrect and the government should continue to spend it's way out of recession. Because Cuba, who have probably out done every other nation on earth in government spending, is currently the most successful country in existence - an economic miracle. Obviously.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-15863565486640110142012-06-09T12:50:00.001+01:002012-06-09T14:42:22.713+01:00Gold Weekly Chart 2010 - 2012This is weekly chart showing gold since 2010. I've drawn some rough trend lines in - personally I don't think it's an exact science. I'm not hugely into the whole technical analysis thing if I'm honest<br />
What I most note is two things<br />
1) it's got a "floor" of about 1550 <br />
2) it's doing that "coiling" movement which can occur before a big breakout - up or down. I hope it's up!<br /><br/>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6lueeQB6bHWCE_Z3V31r2_eHXyn8Qa_xcuqDtNke0qDuTrbxLG5VHwdHw5XF2sU4ZQOAsE8A8OAZVUAfD3vMyeg6JGSq8czuFCk4F7NQguJxlJI-zXyZ8NuukfcpHI78eX-vUTwbgtWoy/s1600/gold_weekly_090612.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6lueeQB6bHWCE_Z3V31r2_eHXyn8Qa_xcuqDtNke0qDuTrbxLG5VHwdHw5XF2sU4ZQOAsE8A8OAZVUAfD3vMyeg6JGSq8czuFCk4F7NQguJxlJI-zXyZ8NuukfcpHI78eX-vUTwbgtWoy/s400/gold_weekly_090612.gif" width="400" /></a><br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-81405499044438644142012-06-09T12:16:00.002+01:002012-06-09T14:38:51.906+01:00Still Long on Gold @1603I remain long on gold, or gold futures to be precise. After my recent success and banking of profits (applying my 10% rule) on gold I bought back into this commodity. IG Index is a good place to trade gold as it is one pound per dollar per ounce. Other spread betting platform are per tick and this can be difficult to time an entry point that either isn't going to get stopped out early in the way that gold tends to make sudden concerted moves.<br />
Today, apparently, our brilliant EU leaders will be meeting to discuss <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/08/spain-bailout-agreed-week">bailing out some of the smaller banks in Spain</a> that overextended themselves during the credit boom. The EU are not money printers per se but honestly - where the hell is this money coming from?<br />
Anyway, I feel all these fiat currency shenanigans will have a positive effect on gold.<br />
I should point out that on this account I am trying to make up for some pretty bad losses. I had originally charged it with a grand and had lost about six hundred of it. I now stands at approx seven hundred which is why my 10% rule kicked in at +60.<br /><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKe024mE0X1NFbqVxEkN2y0gqHZpecv4BljVwgU2B7vQrLRaxkTGhhWbZpflf3pXB2FJEXhNNgP1MQHr4noMwVacPsmuL0Z4-aHYriNL0Y6sGk_Lp4GdExaymySgX8Of48eNsOY1MaULYi/s1600/gold_090612.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="26" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKe024mE0X1NFbqVxEkN2y0gqHZpecv4BljVwgU2B7vQrLRaxkTGhhWbZpflf3pXB2FJEXhNNgP1MQHr4noMwVacPsmuL0Z4-aHYriNL0Y6sGk_Lp4GdExaymySgX8Of48eNsOY1MaULYi/s400/gold_090612.gif" width="400" /></a>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-90760610273799844932012-06-08T21:29:00.000+01:002012-06-09T14:40:39.629+01:00Long US Crude @ 82.77I'd like to make these posts at the time of dealing but there's no time really. Anyway, I've been looking to go long on US Crude as I reckon that 78USD to 85USD is going to be the value for the foreseable future. Last night was tempted to buy, but managed to resist the urge and my patience was paid off by a 200 point overnight drop.
I gamely pressed the BUY button and was rewarded with an immediate 40 point fall. Ha!. However, US Crude is a very volatile commodity so I made sure of a large enough stop (Capital Spreads default is 400 points which is about right) Basically I was willing to see it drop a fair way and hang on for several days.<br/>
As luck would have it, and believe me you can read all the news you want and look at all the charts but there's a lot of luck involved, buyers (more like speculators) returned and pushed the price up. Possibly because of something like a <a href="http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/global-markets-shares-euro-slide-190326612.html">Spanish bailout</a>. US Crude may slip to 78 but I'd be surprised if it went lower due to the amount of speculation that goes on and the untrustworthiness of banks like Goldman Sachs and co who are saying that commodities will collapse whilst at the same time advising their rich clients to buy commodities.<br/>
Anyway, with all my plans to continue to hold on to oil for the foresable future I just had to bank the 180 point gain I saw this evening. My rule is if you have a gain that is equal to 10% of your account value then bank it. In a similar way to how I used to play online poker if I doubled my stack I would leave the table. I felt this method slowly accrued a good bankroll. <br>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR4yByorh1ymyY6LQFrim13yuDN1S4Run6uRiQ88DXMw1cK_uHjJTyFbnZ3djjLCbArjbGvGBtEJMKDDMB5uDqD96X8JUEDtJd3_PHjbuaX3jWwLb5Bi-0DmpMDACtEFUzCiVWilAWAfpC/s1600/USCrude_080612.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="339" width="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR4yByorh1ymyY6LQFrim13yuDN1S4Run6uRiQ88DXMw1cK_uHjJTyFbnZ3djjLCbArjbGvGBtEJMKDDMB5uDqD96X8JUEDtJd3_PHjbuaX3jWwLb5Bi-0DmpMDACtEFUzCiVWilAWAfpC/s400/USCrude_080612.gif" /></a><br/>
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvLdv04AXMkQxo0K3SUUp2lq7wRPWsgfb2iX1T1sPA_IlTogCSlRflrybBto9sGS-WBIOLh1umOiI-ECEFYRNU_XEMNxOLD-JBSHPa1WujSOQ6zfos6qLzQTNZTBx-dEpOCfsPqf7Hhc5f/s1600/trans080612.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="38" width="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvLdv04AXMkQxo0K3SUUp2lq7wRPWsgfb2iX1T1sPA_IlTogCSlRflrybBto9sGS-WBIOLh1umOiI-ECEFYRNU_XEMNxOLD-JBSHPa1WujSOQ6zfos6qLzQTNZTBx-dEpOCfsPqf7Hhc5f/s400/trans080612.gif" /></a><br/>
P/L +177<br/>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-9415756017302179452012-06-08T20:59:00.000+01:002012-06-09T14:45:22.908+01:00Long Facebook @26.91Last night I went long on Facebook at 26.91 as usual via my spread betting account. My reasoning is that reading a couple of articles Facebook is one of those shares that is heavily shorted. Any hint of an upward movement in the NASDAQ causes short squeeze. Morgan Stanley are currently <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/47695838">lending out Facebook shares to short sellers</a> and business is so good they are charging a premium over their usual services! When everybody wants one thing the market normally responds by doing the opposite and those shorts have got to buy themselves out of their positions.<br/>
But that night the general index route was down and spotting that things were going to turn a bit sour I got out for a small loss. I had a feeling that dropping through that trend at that time of day it wasn't going to come back.<br/>
Sold at 26.56 and the stock closed at 26.13. I don't like holding overnight at the moment.<br/>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjobgh71uQ3S6i6u5hLP_fpyfbUH0m-mYRMFDU_KwVVYbcp3_D7mqJuXi3VeZ4-tjydDSoWFYDuaabR1ntbk7N5qmEnAYAxFdS62PdKtpih_0nDAHr0vMZ6dYQToSf3YIu3KlWyEMC4VLnP/s1600/facebook_08062012.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="299" width="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjobgh71uQ3S6i6u5hLP_fpyfbUH0m-mYRMFDU_KwVVYbcp3_D7mqJuXi3VeZ4-tjydDSoWFYDuaabR1ntbk7N5qmEnAYAxFdS62PdKtpih_0nDAHr0vMZ6dYQToSf3YIu3KlWyEMC4VLnP/s400/facebook_08062012.gif" /></a>
P/L -35
<br/>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-86720891095513952052012-06-06T22:01:00.001+01:002012-06-09T13:12:31.715+01:00Long on GoldBefore the budget I had a short on the FTSE based on all the unresolved issues in the eurozone I felt the index was a little too optimistic. Unfortunately I did not follow through with this (read something about trading before the budget more fool me) and closed out when it was 70 points into negatively territory. What a shame considering what the FTSE then proceed to do in May almost a carbon copy of last May 2011. My instincts were good, my execution was poor.<br />
However I recently looked at some gold charts and figured that gold seemed to have stabilised so it was worth a punt. There was a bit of good fortune as my decision to go long on gold seems to have coincided with the prospect of more QE. Long term I think gold will continue to do well with the amount of money printing and the total uncertainty of fiat currencies at the moment. As proof I've uploaded the transaction history where it shows I've made a nice healthy 70 point gain.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj78qGRxlcUwej3SvJ_eoHrY2MbN5izpbB8AJrxp8HDXciraM_OOiFDhyTiyCGqRJRJDSRxRoIQEAUV0UM3miStNFqTMT_vY2jGTupWoWj8w7qIMeB6gl4sw6zoMVdcXqSE1n0qp524Xbkd/s1600/gold2905-0106.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="78" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj78qGRxlcUwej3SvJ_eoHrY2MbN5izpbB8AJrxp8HDXciraM_OOiFDhyTiyCGqRJRJDSRxRoIQEAUV0UM3miStNFqTMT_vY2jGTupWoWj8w7qIMeB6gl4sw6zoMVdcXqSE1n0qp524Xbkd/s400/gold2905-0106.gif" width="400" /></a>
<br/>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-8980302772716039412012-06-06T21:40:00.000+01:002012-06-09T13:13:51.610+01:00Returning to Spread BettingAfter a long hiatus I have decided to tentatively dip my toe back into the spread betting / day trading arena. Basically my story is this. I first started spreadbetting during the crash of 2008 wanting to take advantage of the falling market by going short. Within the space of about a year I had succeeded in turning my initial stake of 1000 pounds into just over three grand. This is the truth - no outright lies or embellishments, I actually did acheive this. I told a few people and was very pleased with myself. I treated some of my friends to dinner at a restaurant. One friend even suggested I take out a grand and spend it on a new PC or something. I said "No - that's my stake. I'm going to build that into a personal fortune!"<br /><br />
Unfortunately, in one horrifying day I lost nearly one thousand pounds trying to be too clever. When the Bank of England first announced their QE policy I noticed that bond prices jumped and kept on rising without retreating at all. I thought I would try to take advantage of this when the second round of QE was announced by the US Treasury. Basically, I thought - "Wow! This is a sure thing. Set up my deals correctly and make easy money!" So I set up my deals accordingly, one below the bond price to sell if it was hit (ie a short) if no more QE was to be implemented, and one above to buy if that one was reached if the US Treasury was going to go ahead with more QE. What actually happened was that the market became <b>incredibly</b> volatile. Both deals were activated (I had implemented them <b>without</b> a "one deal cancels the other" setting and not given myself any outs ... any insurance), both deals were stopped out and in total both cost me about a grand.<br /><br />
I remember that horrifying day all too well. All that profit, all that work destroyed in an instant. After that I went a little mad trying to recoup my losses and bet all sorts of things. The result was I pretty much lost it all right back to my starting 1K. Then I stopped and decided this wasn't for me. But now I'm back. Older - maybe a little wiser (probably not) but willing to have another go.
This time I will stick to indices, commodities and the odd share that I am familiar with.
<br/>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-22091728699603785112011-05-12T08:24:00.000+01:002011-05-13T21:51:24.063+01:00Rio TintoLong at 4103 close to the 200 day moving average of 4083<br /><br />Had a good day spotting the formation of a bear flag? Maybe more like my experience of the movement of crude after a big fall.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-76503145141460124342011-02-23T12:32:00.003+00:002012-06-09T14:43:22.715+01:00US Crudevery very volatile correctly set a buy at approx 95.60 when it was 98 but didn't give it enough breathing and it fell through to 93.48 so it needs 250 as room?<br /><br />Go back some by buying a 94.71 and selling at 95.76<br /><br />I feel that US crude will hit 100 driven by traders trying to push short sell stopsUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-13888227799059347522011-02-23T12:31:00.000+00:002011-02-23T12:32:27.905+00:00AppleDid the opposite of what I thought and tried to catch a falling knife and paid 37 for the loss. It continued to crash which was my initial suspicionUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-16735339435767628732011-02-23T12:27:00.002+00:002011-02-23T12:31:29.353+00:00Barclays closedclosed at 316.9 made 38.60. Felt it had dropped well far enough for now and there was a slight bounce.<br /><br />My general feeling which has been buoyed out is that bulls are now outnumbering bears 3:1 at least and that a recent telegraph article said that ISA money is coming in earlier this year and the VIX is at it's lowest ever level. The market has a nasty habit of crashing just at the point the retail invest comes in!<br /><br />Pity I couldn't bet on the VIX but at ig that is 50 a pt - too rich for meUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-43537424309926557792011-02-18T14:03:00.002+00:002011-02-18T14:07:13.195+00:00Short barclaysAt approx 3.23. Went in before the results figured it could be a buy on rumour sell on news. Surprised by strength, but still think that with all the analysts rating barclays as a buy how much further can it go?<br />316 (2)<br />322 (2)<br />332 (2)<br />Have taken a loss of 20 to close out a 316 contractUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-51215914172658337432010-07-14T22:15:00.002+01:002010-07-14T22:20:08.937+01:00Also must point out ...that three days ago I made a reasonable decision to short EUR against SGD (singapore dollar) and an excellent decision to go long on cable at the exact point it rallied, but sold out the cable trade with a very small profit whilst keeping the EURSGD short running. Unfortunately both rallied on the back of a bond sale/risk appetite increase and I was faced with the gutting sight of the GBP on a 1.5 cent rally whilst my short was closed out with a hefty loss.<br />Backed the wrong horse -"ran my profit and cut my losers" ho humUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-80740800458875401752010-07-14T21:13:00.003+01:002012-06-09T13:18:51.957+01:00I actually learnt somethingI may have actually learnt something from my previous experiences!<br /><br />Didn't do anything on the forex or the indices today, but noticed that Barclays had gapped up so went short. The spread on IG is so huge ended up making no profit whatsoever, but made a little on the other a/c<br /><br />With my previous experience of the behaviour of the DJIA at the end of the day I went long at 10334 (a little early) then again at 10318 which was better but a little as could have got in at 10310. There was a moment when the profit was at 70 when I could have sold, but I hung on hoping to see 10400. It never got there and in fact dropped to breakeven and it took all of my willpower to stick with the plan.<br />And the plan? Well, I have noticed that after an early dip there seems to always be an end of day rally - I believe this to be index futures short covering rather than actually share buying but I can't be sure. Also holding shorts over night in a rally is a bad move and shorts must cover before the closing bell. I also believe the rallies are mostly futures trades and less about the underlying shares. The underlying psychology of shorting is that I think it's more difficult to get right than going long and at the end of the day (meterphorically) shorts have to close out.<br />Some profit and I didn't hold out right to the bell so not a bad result in the end.<br>
<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_me_OSzmmaC40Sm62Bi5D84Je_HdEf67tMUKTKJcdXAUYljPKojmXXaWonb097xzxWqKCMUxRRZlBW9Yc2ZKq4SSUNpU4YurZtiIU2QvAryhjEnt1CRMQlBpw21ZJLFPYKMiqZdGD-X9v/s1600/DJ_14072010_10min.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 378px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_me_OSzmmaC40Sm62Bi5D84Je_HdEf67tMUKTKJcdXAUYljPKojmXXaWonb097xzxWqKCMUxRRZlBW9Yc2ZKq4SSUNpU4YurZtiIU2QvAryhjEnt1CRMQlBpw21ZJLFPYKMiqZdGD-X9v/s400/DJ_14072010_10min.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5493864865413466386" border="0" /></a><br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-9709522894464833992010-07-09T21:06:00.003+01:002010-07-09T21:58:29.649+01:00Mixed dayBetter decision to short cable<br /><br />Poor decision to short DJIA in the evening - the market loves round numbers like 10200 and despite knowing this and saying to myself still went short. I thought it "might" have a down day - I was wrong. At least I tried to short it from a higher position and I had a chance to get out at approx 20:50 but decided to hold in there to my cost<br /><br />Unfortunate decision to set the AMZN long at breakeven. Once down to my close out position it moved upUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-38135777679068911452010-07-08T21:05:00.004+01:002010-07-09T23:26:11.159+01:00A day of poor decisions<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYvkGCGfVQ1ERcQaN6aAOCzhnfNuUgqLWAqROFHXVEaWAvhekhuwjrMi-bNchMxpzeR9odLE7ZQ5D-NlZqnWHDrgL-Jq0ycvfWHqPrWxhzBWM6bmbXGj74u2CDha6yf_HlQLTwsO5Fkztj/s1600/GBPUSD_08072010_hourly.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 365px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYvkGCGfVQ1ERcQaN6aAOCzhnfNuUgqLWAqROFHXVEaWAvhekhuwjrMi-bNchMxpzeR9odLE7ZQ5D-NlZqnWHDrgL-Jq0ycvfWHqPrWxhzBWM6bmbXGj74u2CDha6yf_HlQLTwsO5Fkztj/s400/GBPUSD_08072010_hourly.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5491654062090017650" border="0" /></a><br />The kind of day you hope would be behind you but where the old mistakes. The decision to go long on cable wasn't particularly bad as the pair was forming what I perceive to be a coil. However timing was poor considering the appearance of the pin bar. The afterwards lots of poor decisions to go long, then short and honestly, what the hell was I thinking?<br />Not helped by setting my stop at 15125. Depending on where in the stochastics cycle you are you need to set the stop accordingly. Very high and the stop should be 100+ pips.<br /><br /><br />I'm currently long on AMZN@ 114.88 mainly because of the short interest which I estimate to be approximately 1.7(?) - 1.9 as at 15/06/10 so good chance of a short squeeze. Hair raising drop of 80 pips and didn't have the heart to buy in again which is a shame.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-68374064672223708392010-07-07T21:25:00.003+01:002010-07-07T21:40:03.929+01:0010% rule is a harsh mistress ...... sometimes she will protect you from loss - at other times those gains will run away without you. I figured at this point in time the 10% rule has to be played ruthlessly<br /><br />I made a good decision to long on DJIA at 9698 given the strength of yesterday's late rally.<br />Logged in at 3 to see a nice gain of 120+ points. Ummed and erred about setting the stop at 80 and just seeing how it went but with the fact I must log in at work and can only spend at most 2-3 minutes on this I just took it all off the table. Bear in mind yesteray the index opened up 200pts up on the futures and fell back<br />Well as it happens today was one of those days the index was out to crush the shorts and it rose and rose right up to 10000 without looking back.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-72713003389978180412010-07-06T21:55:00.004+01:002010-07-07T21:25:28.186+01:00Short GoldI had one go at shorting gold earlier in the week and it didn't come off. I noticed that despite the market falling gold had not moved up so had another crack. This time it dropped by about 1.5%. Took profit at ~20% of fund size.<br />Also another trade long on DJIA. All stochs pointed to an oversold situation possible bounce. Index had already made 200 points before falling back. Increased exposure when original trade lost ~30pips. Took profit a little to early as didn't want to risk my earlier profit on the gold short. This is of course the usual psychological issue as it happens DJIA continued to move in the direction I figured it would.<br />Had recently had a set back having missed a big move on the GBPUSD when a long trade that was in profit met the stop loss I had moved to a no-loss setting (less than 1 point!!!). Also failed to go long on my other account at approx the same time.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-43935602700850665192010-06-27T00:55:00.002+01:002010-06-27T01:01:01.556+01:00Anatomy of a bad trade<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd0HiLm7cnwIU7CetetaZWnKaeInNmme1_utyxUrL-vSozXf9EtUl_EfOifNAcqGhc67bwiDxqIGYat-ezFfZM0GTXezDkMcBnYsJPmt0lTqNrJbFDbcrWp6AQWWB9BKh4ezVCIquWwtZ_/s1600/psychology101.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 390px; height: 400px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd0HiLm7cnwIU7CetetaZWnKaeInNmme1_utyxUrL-vSozXf9EtUl_EfOifNAcqGhc67bwiDxqIGYat-ezFfZM0GTXezDkMcBnYsJPmt0lTqNrJbFDbcrWp6AQWWB9BKh4ezVCIquWwtZ_/s400/psychology101.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5487236626977424802" border="0" /></a><br />I think the key is psychology. If you cannot conquer the psychological aspects -the desire to buy cheap and sell high, to "get in at the ground floor", all the human aspects placed there by evolution you will never make a successful trader.<br />The market acts in complete opposition to our in built psychology - expensive gets even more expensive and cheap keeps getting cheaperUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-2728539836469567182010-06-25T20:25:00.004+01:002010-06-25T20:59:36.051+01:00Broke my 10% rule again!!!I was correct down to 14856, unfortunately I ignored my 10% rule and paid the price with the currency hitting 14856 at it's lowest level before rebounding up past my initial sale point and up past the morning's high to 15000.<br />I set my stop really rather too high - I mean, once past the day's high a decline was unlikely. The problem comes once again that I cannot really see what is going on except through yahoo, but maybe my problem is breaking my golden rule in an attempt to hold a position. I believe that if you are going to do this, once in a large profit one should set the stop to a nil profit or loss and accept the consequences.<br />Made a little back this evening but trading in this short time span is little more than playing a video game.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-39146892381792102672010-06-24T19:44:00.003+01:002010-06-24T20:33:23.659+01:00Short GBPUSD @ 14937<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxUztettAhJ42w673e9gMc0yOgohoz3W8VBxfc1ITOSFmnQlD_7I7lxfLQJK8lEsBRjIG5LK1gO2pEtyzrYVA5ZHPkx0IquoIwuZhcwmi8nq_pDLIScLFqAMauWFsibFjRlxWbBLqpOBLJ/s1600/GBPUSD_24062010_10min.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 378px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxUztettAhJ42w673e9gMc0yOgohoz3W8VBxfc1ITOSFmnQlD_7I7lxfLQJK8lEsBRjIG5LK1gO2pEtyzrYVA5ZHPkx0IquoIwuZhcwmi8nq_pDLIScLFqAMauWFsibFjRlxWbBLqpOBLJ/s400/GBPUSD_24062010_10min.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5486425532869291778" border="0" /></a><br />The reason here is there is quite an interesting formation and a lot of volatility which the bears have won. If the DJ closes significantly down tonight I think there will be a bit of room for the currency pair to fall away overnight given how much the Asian markets are affected by the US.<br />The rule is you shouldn't short a short term double top if it turns into a triple top but the very volatile action at the top of the second peak leads me to believe the currency bulls were unable to push past the 1.50 levelUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6671712955375882582.post-60197369038200696482010-06-24T19:15:00.003+01:002010-06-24T19:25:06.825+01:00Slightly irritatedOriginally having posulated the DJ would drop to 10195 I then second guessed myself and chased the market a little and altered it to 10215. Also opened up a trade on the other account at 10238 (much much too high) Have now closed with a profit, but at the moment can't really see what will hold up the market - unless you take the position that we see a lot of bad news and the market won't go down<br />It's low point was 10165 and I think it will retest that low todayUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0