Fools rush in

Affected by my failure to pull the trigger when the FTSE stood at I was unable to step back to review the big picture and went short on the FTSE at ~4950* - far far below a sensible entry point. Then went in again later in the evening just before the DJ blasted upwards. As sensible move at this point would possibly have been to buy FTSE to offset the loss?

However I closed the EURUSD short in profit this morning having the feeling there was no more gain to be had, after increasing overnight. This allowed me to reduce the exposure on the short to 1.50

* based on adding 50 to SEP futures

Short EURUSD @12383

It's forward so add about 10 pts

Couldn't pull the trigger last night on short FTSE Sep at 5003 - big mistake. Order missed by what 3-4 pts. Gutting isn't it?

Oopsy

Right to be dealing at 7-9am, wrong to hold a long position especially in a falling market. Shoulda took the money and run at 8:30 when I'd captured a half cent movement. The currency heads down at the slightest whiff of trouble

Put too much on as well.

Bad call

The market rebounded in the closing 20 mins to 10196. This would have annilihated me! I would rather be right and have less profit than be wrong yet be in the money - and is this the wrong mindset too.
So I was correct in
1) Not being greedy - the profit reached 20% of the fund so I took this. If you could do this enough times it wouldn't be long before we could see parity
2) Out of the market before the funny stuff at the end

I was wrong in
1) Thought there would be a hefty fall - but this rebound could have been short covering, for profit taking

To be honest you could go insane

Close ~10066

Although I feel once again the market has more downside considering I just recouped most of the mad, depressing losses ie just made back 20% of the fund.
How did I do this? I applied some experience of the market to the current situation and backed it with serious money - 2 GBP a point. Also I took the major step of selling again when the market came back to my level. Missed out a chance to short when the market when 30 points past my initial level, just couldn't pull the trigger. It was seriously hairy though watching the money rack up ...
One of the other things was that I wanted to be out of the market by 8:30 because it does strange things in the closing period
Made a poor decision to try and add to my GBPUSD short - must remember this is the quiet period of the currency markets and there's no money to be made here.

My prediction? ~ 10020

I have a feeling GBPUSD will appreciate quite seriously next week

Short WallSt at 10200

If you were a fund manager would you want to be in the market over the weekend? I wouldn't have thought so there being the amount of uncertainty in the world. I would be surprised if the market finished a long way up - I think you'd have to be a brave man to start buying stocks now.

Market collapse

I think we are in the midst of a full blown market collapse. I thought it would hold today but we're talking major stock dump.

FTSE at 4000 by mid June?

Shoulda held that FTSE short eh?

Long GBPUSD @ 14362

Are the shorters getting a bit itchy?

Rethink my FTSE short

I think a short at this level is wrong so have decided to close it

P&L -13

Was I right about AUDUSD or what? Now at 8310 (SEP 8205)

Long GBPUSD close at 14400

Good 80pip profit here - but hairy no doubt about that with a huge bout of volatility at about 8:10 causing a 40 pip move. The bet was auto closed as I felt that above 14400 was going to be a bit shaky

Short the FTSE SEP at 5113. Not at all ideal - min bet is 2GBP causing an immediate 10GBP loss to resize the bet. Would have much preferred to short at +5200 but really who's to say what will happen

GBPUSD support turn?

Because I have so little money to play with I reduce my stake to 0.35. All the indicators seem to indicate possible a turn in GBPUSD
R = 14453, 14609
P = 14365
S = 14208, 14119

Once again an anti trend trade

Oops

Another attempt to catch a falling knife. Luckily got out of it with only a 2GBP loss by buying in lower.
Having said that could have held a bit longer to see profit but no matter
Also avoided silliness by attempting to sell EURUSD as a hedge. It bounced and would have left me farked

Long WallSt @ 10532

Can't see why Wall St dropped nearly 1% from the bell. Doesn't look like a falling knife ...
Immediate position reduction to 0.5 per point

Close AUDUSD

Have closed the position (took the money and ran). Over 200 pip profit
Looks like the markets are consolidating a bit
Want to short FTSE but it costs 2GBP a pip so with position sizing auto loss of 5 to 6 pounds makes it problematic

What to do

My AUDUSD short is showing a 200 pip profit. Pity its only at 25p a point. But do I take the profit now? Or is there more to come?
My feeling is to take a profit, but with it breaching what looked like a support level there may be more to come, and it is a very long bet.
The image seems to show that the selling could very well accelerate

Didn't go long on US Crude today - good choice

Repeating the same mistakes

Well despite having stated before what an important support level ~12600 for the EURUSD (well, I thought I did but can't find any posts). Having said that I once again tried to go against the flow and got myself a -70 pip loss going long on EURUSD Why?!? Even worse I tried increasing the size to 0.40.
However it was right to take the RIO profit - FTSE fell nearly 190 points today dragging everything with it except WOS strangely enough

Try not to short GOLD please how ever tempting it may be

And for god sake read this blog! It's not worth recording all your thoughts feelings and theories if you're not going to read them!

Have noticed AUDEUR still isn't rising as far as I would expect it should. Why is this? Is there a correction in store?

Some success

Closed the bet on RIO.L with a profit of ~35. The process of immediately halving the bet size is costing money, but then again if I'd thought of doing this I could have held my previous trade open all the way through. Closed at approx 1pm @3375 as didn't want to have it roll again. It could have more legs maybe?

Also closed EURUSD @ 12557

Now trying to reduce my exposure on the AUDUSD short

As we draw to the middle of May can we expect the poor performance of the stock market in this period to play out again. Disturbingly we are in the second term of Obama's term with a poor January? Is there a second drop in the offing. I think there is.
Look to short the FTSE at +5700? Short the DJ at +10900?

Short EURUSD @ 12630

This looks like a key support level which of course means it could be dangerous as short reversals could cause a huge rally.

Quick update

Need to record while still fresh in my mind

Unfortunately a bit of a muck up re the EURUSD short. Absolutely correct although maybe should have taken profits at +50 pips. Left it overnight which is always a bit of a gamble to find it -40 pips down in the morning, shorted again at -60 pips (correct) but unfortunately so busy trying to juggle my open positions that I didn't set the stop at my usual 120 pip level and got whip sawed out. God damn.

Made a +40 pip profit today going long on GBPUSD specifically on a possible rally predicted. Did the trade at 7:30 out by approx 8:30. These are the most volatile times for dealing this pair. Dealt twice rather than staying in

GBPUSD reached 15040 then had a shocking turnaround and finished a cent down

Short EURUSD @ 12914

Euro opened (gapped) up a long way - I haven't the faintest idea why - maybe because of the bailout? However, this looks like a shorting opportunity so went short with 0.25 using my new position sizing technique ;-)