Long AMZN (but only for a bit!)

Yes, I'm not proud of myself - I had a little punt on Amazon. I note the market was rising but AMZN was stuck and looking at the 10 minute chart I noted a nice little ascending triangle. I also noted that in a recent article Amazon is apparently one of the most heavily shorted hedge fund stocks. I checked the NASDAQ short interest web page and it still would take over 2 days to cover.
Of course when I clicked the buy button I was reminded of why I don't usually bet on this stock. An immediate 20 point spread. Nasty.

Still got very, very lucky and there was a quick breakout from the triangle on the long side so I booked my profit and swore not to touch Amazon again!



P/L 28.50

Bear Flag US Crude?

Despite my positive view on US Crude looking at the charts I have to wonder if there is a bear flag forming. I don't go in for a lot of technical analysis but in the past I have found bull and bear flags to be quite powerful formations. Overnight US Crude gapped up over 200 ticks from my cash in point last Friday. For a few minutes of faint regret at about 11:30pm last night having thought for a few minutes on Friday just putting in a stop at about +120 my feeling is that if you can get 50% of a move then that's pretty good and over a weekend you can never really tell what's going to happen.


If this bear flag plays out we could see a drop in Crude to 75-70 area.
I suppose it all hinges on the Greek election on 17th June. No doubt the Greeks will vote for whatever political entity that will promise the end of austerity politics and allow the party of early retirement, easy benefits and to continue. Sorry, but in the UK 70% of my aquaintances are basically socialists, even the ones who aren't(!), who think that cutting government debt is the incorrect and the government should continue to spend it's way out of recession. Because Cuba, who have probably out done every other nation on earth in government spending, is currently the most successful country in existence - an economic miracle. Obviously.

Gold Weekly Chart 2010 - 2012

This is weekly chart showing gold since 2010. I've drawn some rough trend lines in - personally I don't think it's an exact science. I'm not hugely into the whole technical analysis thing if I'm honest
What I most note is two things
1) it's got a "floor" of about 1550
2) it's doing that "coiling" movement which can occur before a big breakout - up or down. I hope it's up!

Long US Crude @ 82.77

I'd like to make these posts at the time of dealing but there's no time really. Anyway, I've been looking to go long on US Crude as I reckon that 78USD to 85USD is going to be the value for the foreseable future. Last night was tempted to buy, but managed to resist the urge and my patience was paid off by a 200 point overnight drop. I gamely pressed the BUY button and was rewarded with an immediate 40 point fall. Ha!. However, US Crude is a very volatile commodity so I made sure of a large enough stop (Capital Spreads default is 400 points which is about right) Basically I was willing to see it drop a fair way and hang on for several days.
As luck would have it, and believe me you can read all the news you want and look at all the charts but there's a lot of luck involved, buyers (more like speculators) returned and pushed the price up. Possibly because of something like a Spanish bailout. US Crude may slip to 78 but I'd be surprised if it went lower due to the amount of speculation that goes on and the untrustworthiness of banks like Goldman Sachs and co who are saying that commodities will collapse whilst at the same time advising their rich clients to buy commodities.
Anyway, with all my plans to continue to hold on to oil for the foresable future I just had to bank the 180 point gain I saw this evening. My rule is if you have a gain that is equal to 10% of your account value then bank it. In a similar way to how I used to play online poker if I doubled my stack I would leave the table. I felt this method slowly accrued a good bankroll.



P/L +177

Long Facebook @26.91

Last night I went long on Facebook at 26.91 as usual via my spread betting account. My reasoning is that reading a couple of articles Facebook is one of those shares that is heavily shorted. Any hint of an upward movement in the NASDAQ causes short squeeze. Morgan Stanley are currently lending out Facebook shares to short sellers and business is so good they are charging a premium over their usual services! When everybody wants one thing the market normally responds by doing the opposite and those shorts have got to buy themselves out of their positions.
But that night the general index route was down and spotting that things were going to turn a bit sour I got out for a small loss. I had a feeling that dropping through that trend at that time of day it wasn't going to come back.
Sold at 26.56 and the stock closed at 26.13. I don't like holding overnight at the moment.

P/L -35

US Crude

very very volatile correctly set a buy at approx 95.60 when it was 98 but didn't give it enough breathing and it fell through to 93.48 so it needs 250 as room?

Go back some by buying a 94.71 and selling at 95.76

I feel that US crude will hit 100 driven by traders trying to push short sell stops