Friday, 30 April 2010

Follow your instincts

Interesting scenario today. I opened up a long position on GBPUSD for the 7:30-8am surge. It arrived then died away. At the same time I noticed that the EURGBP was in a "setup".
I had both open at approx 8:30 and despite that my instincts were to go with the EURGBP because the stochastics for GBPUSD were in the >70 for longer than I though would be good and RSI was dropping and the EURGBP was showing stronger signs of trending up I went with the GBPUSD because I reckon I know more about it's movements.

P&L -5 (EURGBP) 8:30am
P&L -18 (GBPUSD) 11:30am

In hindsight should have gone with my instincts?

Wednesday, 28 April 2010

Evening deal

"Traditional" trading thinking would have it that once the stochastics move into the the >80 territory it is in overbought territory, and <20 territory is oversold. On examination of charts would seem to indicate actually going long on the "overbought" signal and short on the "oversold" is a more succesful route as the stock keeps trending up until the point at which it changes direction. It is then at the trader's discretion to take a profit.
This would seem to avoid the prediction trap that I have been falling into.


P&L = +1 woot!

Maybe use RSI to dectect once a trade should be closed when it moves into >70 territory (overbought) <30 (oversold)

Morning deal

With my "research" showing that a lot of action occurs at between 7 and 9am I decided to do a quick bit of dealing. Waited until there was a surge down then when short 1
Open 15221
Close 15209
P & L +12
Very short deal space
The question is : is this luck or actually instinct?

Tuesday, 27 April 2010

Well, after nearly a year away from dealing because of a horrendous loss trying to be too clever on a bond deal.
Basically I tried to set a buy above and sell below based on when the Fed decided to either continue or stop their QE policy. What actually happened was that the market oscillated wildly first rising to my buy before dropping to the stop loss at the same time activating the sell position before rising to it's stop loss end result was an 800 GBP loss.
On my other account I could have made about 100 on a USDJPY short but I failed to cash in and the position reversed.

So slowly getting back to trading. Have noticed that most of the GBPUSD action seems to occur at about 7-9am then again at approx 3pm. It would be best to deal here I think. Have made 3 small but positive deals

However made a poor deal today going long on EURUSD 0.5GBP. Unfamilarity with the movements of this pair was my downfall? I thought I could see a double bottom and thought the bad news had been priced in. P/L -47 (could have been worse but I shut it down) Also a credit agency downgrade on Portugal smashed the euro

Correctly surmised that there would be panic sell on Wall Street about 45mins to half and hour before the end so went short 1 GBP a point. Did this twice for a profit of 23GBP but if I had just stayed in I could have tripled this. Oh well, live and learn

Have my eye on Next as a short