Tuesday, 30 June 2009

Open Gold Long 1 @ 928.1 30/06/09 20:42

I have studied the hourly chart and according to my findings there is a 40/26 chance that gold will open higher or trade higher between 7-8 in the morning. I will therefore execute this long and close it early

Open GBP/USD Long 1 @ 1.6462 30/06/09 20:08

Long. What can I say. This is my decision as I think the break above 1.67 was good signs for bulls even though there was an immediate 3 cent drop.

US Crude Auto close @ 69.06

Well, what can I say? I make an impulse sale based upon pretty much nothing at all except a general feeling and it rolls in with a stonking great profit. I set the stop profit at 350 thinking it wouldn't drop to this level and it triggered. Not surprising traders go crazy considering the amount of time I spent on my cable strategy only to see it lose me over 500 quid.

P&L : 350

US Crude Short 1 @ 72.56 30/06/09 08:09

I have decided to sell this based on the fact that the oil price is really just high now because of the Nigeria situation

Close Short 1 GBP/USD @ 1.6640 25/06/09 09:21

I had a short order that I totally forgot about. It triggered at 1.6580. I saw it last night in a little profit so I decided to keep it going and close it at +70 or something. Unfortunately the currency continued to rally overnight and so it is yet another loss.

P&L : -60

Thursday, 25 June 2009

Close Long 1 GBP/USD @ 1.6354 25/06/09 09:21

I don't know which way I'm going at the moment. Only this was a good decision as the currency has continued to drop over a cent from here - possibly on comments from Mervyn King about our debt

P&L : -37

Also lost 12 last night clicking the wrong currency ... how silly

Wednesday, 24 June 2009

Open GBP/USD Long 1 @ 1.6391 24/06/09 20:16

OK, the market has categorically stated (to me today!) it is long I have decided to go long here. The difference is this time I will restrict myself to 1 pound a pip, and set a large stop. Effectively I need to treat this as buying 10000 GBP which is essentially what I am doing.
Lets face it - according to the chart we either have a slowly rising support level , or a definite resistance level at approx 1.66
Its not surprising that was eventually going to lose money. Trade after trade has been a fire fighting operation where I have got out by the skin of my teeth and eventually I was going to let one go too far. Trying to trade in this environment for this particular asset is very very difficult.
A good learning experience?

Stopped out GBP/USD @ 1.6554 23/06/09 08:40

Very disappointed in myself here. I really felt at approx 7:30am was a good time to reduce or even close as the market had not reacted the way I supposed it would
Having said that you can never be sure, but it did occur to me last night that there seemed to be a support level at approx 1.62 looking at the charts

Looks like I'm trying to short in a long market - a market at odds with our stock market, debt and general economic situation. Supply vs demand

P&L : -200

Currency is still my poorest asset class

Tuesday, 23 June 2009

Open GBP/USD Short 2 @ 1.6454 17/06/09 20:44

I have decided to go short here as the currency has not rallied to it's usual high during the Wall St trading. If one were going to short this is around the best time.

Here are the stochastics :
%K = 93; %D=89; RSI=63
Obviously not ideal setup and a slice of speculation here

FWIW here's another chart ;-)

Remember this time if it looks bad - REDUCE! Don't knee jerk close

What am I?

Am I a intraday trader looking to make impulse trades based upon what I perceive as opportunities to make money on that day?
Or am I a longer trend follower?
I've made more money by looking to close trades after the available profit has become about 10% of my current profit.
I want to avoid making a lot of trades but perhaps that's the way I operate best.

BTW I was right about the FTSE - it dropped over 2% yesterday and I would have made a good profit. Unfortunately closing then reopening is a poor strategy the trade goes red too quickly and distorts my perception.

Open & Close GBP/USD Long 1 @ 1.6300 23/06/09 08:00

I put in an order this time based upon the stochastic movement and my "experience" of the overnight movement of the currency. I was sort of correct but have decided to close this as I have a suspicion the currency will lurch down today - possibly as with the US Treasury auction investors will be looking to sell assets to buy bonds (?)

P&L : 0

Friday, 19 June 2009

Close GBP/USD @ 1.6258 19/06/09 16:50

I had always planned to let this one run no matter what even though today I noted several opportunities to get on the blower an close. Without the big mid morning fall I was concerned that 3pm rally (seems the yanks prefer the GBP to the green back) would screw things up.

P&L : -140

I don't think hourly support lines are strong enough.
I don't want to day trade but not taking the 170 pip down move has cost me in the opposite direction. Also not taking action this afternoon when I strongly felt I should has cost me about 100 quid.

Looks like this is what I suspected it may be - a bull pennant. Should cable push into 1.67-1.68 I would imagine a long position should be taken.

Close FTSE DR Short @ 4307 19/06/09 09:11

Once this had refused to drop any further I felt it was prudent to close it before going to work

P&L : -30

Thursday, 18 June 2009

Profit taking on GBPUSD position

Two things today:
I felt the spike today at approx 8:30 was an opportunity to sell short again at 1.6460. I deliberately did not go for this
It could have been possible to close at approx 1.6200 to day with a 180 profit. Once again I have deliberately not closed this position even though this is a hefty profit as I am attempting to keep position open to gain max profit.
If I am trading off the hourly chart should I be profit taking on a "hourly" basis?

Wednesday, 17 June 2009

Open GBP/USD Short 1 @ 1.6388 17/06/09 22:50

I have prepared a couple of charts and am trying to trade off what I observe ie that the second push at 1.66 failed and the RSI dropped. I am not trading off the doji but it could be significant. Daily stochastics have crossed over as well.

The hourly chart showing the trend from the top of the second peak

Once again only 1 pound a point ...

FTSE DR Short 1 @ 4279 17/06/09 20:59

Let's do it! Have re-opened the position. What tomorrow may bring who knows, but the plan is to see the index down to 4100. Have always wanted to try this method of banking a profit then getting back in so let's see how it goes...

Using the March 9 low of 3485 the rally has currently been unable to break through 4500 looks like using Fibonacci we can see a support at approx 4250. A break below this and the next support is at 4100? Meh who knows

Close FTSE DR Short 1 @ 4276 17/06/09 20:40

Never particularly happy with my entry level in retrospect better to have sold at 4480-4500 with a stop at 4575 or something if you were going to go short.
Can I really expect the index to fall that much further? Still have a feeling there's too much fund money on the sides desperate to get in

P&L : 31

FTSE DR Short 1 @ 4308 17/06/09 09:05

The FTSE has broken through it's support level of ~4310 so based on this I am going short (even though this is against my initial feeling that the market would go up)
I am basing my trade purely on the chart.

Close GBP/USD Long @ 1.6440 10/06/09 08:03

P&L : -32

I'm really worried. I have no plan. What am I trying to achieve? I just read the "The Turtle Way" and I have to face facts that the only plan I have is :

1) instrument is on an uptrend I use stochatics to buy in, hourly is best as daily may show
2) If daily and hourly stochastics combine, ie my recent sell of gold was a good example when RSI/daily stochastics/hourly stochatics showed the price had reached the top of it's range
3) The occasional deal on a whim - US Crude at 66.8 was an example because I just felt it was an opportunity to get in on the trend.

I don't do any backtesting apart from a bit of chart observation. Has my success just been luck? The one reason for my recent gains have been are that I have avoided trying to trade against the trend, ie to trade reversals without all the indicators showing.

PS Never buy into an hourly stochatic that is half way up

Open GBP/USD Long 1 @ 1.6472 17/06/09 07:42

Try this - buying in on hourly uptrend? Have seen a possible bull pennant appearing in the cable graph

Tuesday, 16 June 2009

Close FTSE DR 1 @ 4341 12/06/09 09:00

As a result of a personal issue I decided that trading today wasn't a good idea so closed the position. Also didn't look as if the index was going to go in the direction I have previously stated, anyway.

P&L : -26

As it happens the FTSE has dropped to 4288

Monday, 15 June 2009

FTSE DR Long 1 @ 4367 15/06/09 12:00

Late update here. Actually made a bit of an impulse purchase here after seeing the FTSE down 2% at approx 12:00
If the selloff gathers pace it could drop to 4100? Can the fund managers dare to sit out and wait for the index to drop far enough to get in? If I'm honest this drop was not a good sign and that is why I have kept my exposure low

Friday, 12 June 2009

Close FTSE DR @ 12/06/09 20:00 4455

Don't want to spend the weekend fretting about a position so have decided to close this with a small profit.

P&L : 30

There is a definite ascending triangle but t
he question is, as ever, what will provide the impetus for the next upward leg if there is one? Most of the current strength has come from miners, financials and some cyclicals bouncing of the lows.

Anyway it's good to have made my target. The question is now - can I or should I increase my exposure?

Reduce FTSE DR 1 @ 4462 12/06/09 09:00

Reduce? Reduce? After increasing overnight? Ha looks like I have no strategy. Well OK, point taken that I shouldn't be jumping in an out the market like this but the DJ Futures are very flat overnight and there was a sudden sell off just before the closing bell.
I still think the market could rise dramatically within the next few days with the rising triangle formation, but I have just passed the 2K up mark and to be honest I would prefer to protect my hard won cash as I could well be wrong. It is at the point at which we could see a dramatic movement either way.

P&L : -5

I have found disturbingly that I have become more conservative the more profit I have made

Thursday, 11 June 2009

Increase FTSE DR 1 @ 4467 11/06/09 20:44

I have decided to do something I have never tried before and that is to add to a position that has risen considerably.
If this really is an ascending triangle then a breakout will be quite strong.
The fund managers have consistently talked up a pullback but if this does not happen then there will be fireworks. The classic fear vs greed scenario

Currently both positions have cancelled eachother out.

Close GBP/USD 1 @ 1.6591 11/06/09 19:33

P&L: 210

Couldn't help myself had to take a profit. What a pity I closed the other long position! Still realistically this is still early days and it would be impossible to concentrate at the office knowing I could be whupped to the tune of -250 pounds if I got it wrong and the stop loss was activated. Still does prove how trading with the trend is the right thing to do.
I am thinking of going long again on a pullback of over half a cent.
Much better to monitor the trades via yahoo or CNBC where you can't actually see the values changing - it's just to horrendous to see saw between -ve and +ve and it stops any kind of sensible thinking.

Reduce FTSE DR 1 @ 4424 08/06/09 09:30

Can't bear the risk (possible day risk of -230) so have reduced. Got to go to work!

Reduce GBP/USD 1 @ 1.6353 08/06/09 07:43

Still can't keep a position that has a possibility of losing 200 pounds open whilst at work, so have decided to reduce exposure whilst in profit

P&L : 4

The market is at a point where it's going to go either way.

Open FTSE DR Long 2 @ 4434 08/06/09 08:00

There is a rising support level (a flag?) so if the FTSE is going to rise it's now or never

Open GBP/USD Long 2 @ 1.6387 08/06/09 07:43

Having decided that my previous strategy of trying to sell on a reversal is pretty poor I have decided to go long at approx 7:30 where the currency tends to rally heavily.

Daily stochastics have crossed over at this point. Had missed chance to buy in overnight (worrying about 20 pounds?)

Wednesday, 10 June 2009

Close GBP/USD Short @ 1.6351 10/06/09 06:45

P&L : -14
Finally decided to close this one - if the overnight fall hadn't happened by now then open to a heavy rally. Could have closed earlier with small +ve but what's the point? I'm in this to make money
Probably quite a poorly thought out deal overall. Up nearly half a cent now. (7:05am)

Tuesday, 9 June 2009

Close GBP/USD Short @ 1.6295 09/06/09 19:10

Hourly stochastic %K = 95.9 %D = 93.8 RSI = 74
Currency pair has moved up 3 cents in one day from low point
Go short but take any profit at 50 - 75 pips ( examine position at that point )

Currently overcoming a big spike up to 0.8 cent from opening position. Have gone short again @ 1.6337
In retrospect a dangerous trade, have to remember measuring from the top of the pullback requires me to hit the top!

Have decided to kill the original short @ 1.6319 P&L = -24 and keep the other short going. Run my winners and kill my losers?

Monday, 8 June 2009

US Crude July @ 68.69 Close position 08/06/09 18:21

Came off ahead here, surprisingly picking the bottom of the drop. Phoned this order in as it represents 10% of my current profit. Realistically would like to stay in the market but want to take the profit. Also I note that GoldmanSachs have valued oil at 85USD - historically they seem always to overvalue/undervalue by 25%. Remember they said 20USD was possible

P&L : 180

Also have noted that GBP/USD reached 1.5801 at lowest point so a further 60 pips from buyin. Indicators were not far off here so could have stuck with it. Is currently at 1.6073. Once again far better off to deal, log off and trust your instincts. FTSE is trading in a tighter and tighter range - is the market waiting for the end of Brown? Some explosive movement will occur soon.

US Crude July @ 66.89

OK I admit this is a bit of a gamble but oil in general is on an upward march. Stop loss set at 64.85 lower than previous low at 3 Jun.
Has already dropped 2.15% from open. Only caveat is that existing buyers may look for an opportunity to sell ahead of contract expiry on 17/06/09

Close GBP/USD Long @ 1.5846 08/06/09 08:33

Too dangerous, a lot of wobbling around - actually saw a 20 pip +ve a one point which equated to approx half cent rise then started dropping heavily. Not a good market to go long in at the moment indicator or not

P&L : -24

Close EUR/USD Long @ 1.3954 08/06/09 08:00

Have decided to close @ 1.3954 this as no good or strong upward movement overnight or within last hour and have opened another currency deal GBP/USD
P&L : -4

GBP/USD Rolling Daily Long 1.00 @ 1.5870 08/06/2009 07:48

Hourly Stochastic %K = 6.0 %D = 3.9 RSI = 22
I have decided to go long here as all hourly indicators flag buy. Still dangerous as daily indicators are dropping. Setting stop loss at -50 pips. Already dropped 122 pips from open

EUR/USD Rolling Daily Long 1.00 08/06/2009 00:30

Hourly Stochastic %K = 10.1 %D = 9.9 RSI = 27.83 Momentum -0.0215
I have decided to go long here as all hourly indicators flag buy. Still dangerous as daily indicators are dropping. Setting stop loss at -125 pips