Wednesday, 14 July 2010

Also must point out ...

that three days ago I made a reasonable decision to short EUR against SGD (singapore dollar) and an excellent decision to go long on cable at the exact point it rallied, but sold out the cable trade with a very small profit whilst keeping the EURSGD short running. Unfortunately both rallied on the back of a bond sale/risk appetite increase and I was faced with the gutting sight of the GBP on a 1.5 cent rally whilst my short was closed out with a hefty loss.
Backed the wrong horse -"ran my profit and cut my losers" ho hum

I actually learnt something

I may have actually learnt something from my previous experiences!

Didn't do anything on the forex or the indices today, but noticed that Barclays had gapped up so went short. The spread on IG is so huge ended up making no profit whatsoever, but made a little on the other a/c

With my previous experience of the behaviour of the DJIA at the end of the day I went long at 10334 (a little early) then again at 10318 which was better but a little as could have got in at 10310. There was a moment when the profit was at 70 when I could have sold, but I hung on hoping to see 10400. It never got there and in fact dropped to breakeven and it took all of my willpower to stick with the plan.
And the plan? Well, I have noticed that after an early dip there seems to always be an end of day rally - I believe this to be index futures short covering rather than actually share buying but I can't be sure. Also holding shorts over night in a rally is a bad move and shorts must cover before the closing bell. I also believe the rallies are mostly futures trades and less about the underlying shares. The underlying psychology of shorting is that I think it's more difficult to get right than going long and at the end of the day (meterphorically) shorts have to close out.
Some profit and I didn't hold out right to the bell so not a bad result in the end.

Friday, 9 July 2010

Mixed day

Better decision to short cable

Poor decision to short DJIA in the evening - the market loves round numbers like 10200 and despite knowing this and saying to myself still went short. I thought it "might" have a down day - I was wrong. At least I tried to short it from a higher position and I had a chance to get out at approx 20:50 but decided to hold in there to my cost

Unfortunate decision to set the AMZN long at breakeven. Once down to my close out position it moved up

Thursday, 8 July 2010

A day of poor decisions

The kind of day you hope would be behind you but where the old mistakes. The decision to go long on cable wasn't particularly bad as the pair was forming what I perceive to be a coil. However timing was poor considering the appearance of the pin bar. The afterwards lots of poor decisions to go long, then short and honestly, what the hell was I thinking?
Not helped by setting my stop at 15125. Depending on where in the stochastics cycle you are you need to set the stop accordingly. Very high and the stop should be 100+ pips.

I'm currently long on AMZN@ 114.88 mainly because of the short interest which I estimate to be approximately 1.7(?) - 1.9 as at 15/06/10 so good chance of a short squeeze. Hair raising drop of 80 pips and didn't have the heart to buy in again which is a shame.

Wednesday, 7 July 2010

10% rule is a harsh mistress ...

... sometimes she will protect you from loss - at other times those gains will run away without you. I figured at this point in time the 10% rule has to be played ruthlessly

I made a good decision to long on DJIA at 9698 given the strength of yesterday's late rally.
Logged in at 3 to see a nice gain of 120+ points. Ummed and erred about setting the stop at 80 and just seeing how it went but with the fact I must log in at work and can only spend at most 2-3 minutes on this I just took it all off the table. Bear in mind yesteray the index opened up 200pts up on the futures and fell back
Well as it happens today was one of those days the index was out to crush the shorts and it rose and rose right up to 10000 without looking back.

Tuesday, 6 July 2010

Short Gold

I had one go at shorting gold earlier in the week and it didn't come off. I noticed that despite the market falling gold had not moved up so had another crack. This time it dropped by about 1.5%. Took profit at ~20% of fund size.
Also another trade long on DJIA. All stochs pointed to an oversold situation possible bounce. Index had already made 200 points before falling back. Increased exposure when original trade lost ~30pips. Took profit a little to early as didn't want to risk my earlier profit on the gold short. This is of course the usual psychological issue as it happens DJIA continued to move in the direction I figured it would.
Had recently had a set back having missed a big move on the GBPUSD when a long trade that was in profit met the stop loss I had moved to a no-loss setting (less than 1 point!!!). Also failed to go long on my other account at approx the same time.

Sunday, 27 June 2010

Anatomy of a bad trade

I think the key is psychology. If you cannot conquer the psychological aspects -the desire to buy cheap and sell high, to "get in at the ground floor", all the human aspects placed there by evolution you will never make a successful trader.
The market acts in complete opposition to our in built psychology - expensive gets even more expensive and cheap keeps getting cheaper

Friday, 25 June 2010

Broke my 10% rule again!!!

I was correct down to 14856, unfortunately I ignored my 10% rule and paid the price with the currency hitting 14856 at it's lowest level before rebounding up past my initial sale point and up past the morning's high to 15000.
I set my stop really rather too high - I mean, once past the day's high a decline was unlikely. The problem comes once again that I cannot really see what is going on except through yahoo, but maybe my problem is breaking my golden rule in an attempt to hold a position. I believe that if you are going to do this, once in a large profit one should set the stop to a nil profit or loss and accept the consequences.
Made a little back this evening but trading in this short time span is little more than playing a video game.

Thursday, 24 June 2010

Short GBPUSD @ 14937

The reason here is there is quite an interesting formation and a lot of volatility which the bears have won. If the DJ closes significantly down tonight I think there will be a bit of room for the currency pair to fall away overnight given how much the Asian markets are affected by the US.
The rule is you shouldn't short a short term double top if it turns into a triple top but the very volatile action at the top of the second peak leads me to believe the currency bulls were unable to push past the 1.50 level

Slightly irritated

Originally having posulated the DJ would drop to 10195 I then second guessed myself and chased the market a little and altered it to 10215. Also opened up a trade on the other account at 10238 (much much too high) Have now closed with a profit, but at the moment can't really see what will hold up the market - unless you take the position that we see a lot of bad news and the market won't go down
It's low point was 10165 and I think it will retest that low today

Monday, 21 June 2010

The 10% rule - broke it again!

Made a good trade to order a buy at 14813 which was based upon a prediction looking at how the stochastics were based.
Checked the status of the trade at 8:20 to see it had gained one cent. Broke my 10% rule (profit stood at +20% in actual fact) and tried to increase at 14882 only to see the pair continue to drop away. Sensibly only increased by 0.5. Finally closed for no profit at all. Well - worth a try, however the drop from 14915 to 14750 was surprising. Because of the emergency budget? I admit I was trying the buy on the rumour, sell on the news - just didn't sell early enough.
The DJ closed down today, losing about 200 points from the open which had gapped up. Since the gap has been filled is this an exhaustion gap? The futures climb was due to China agreeing to loosen the yuan's peg to the dollar. My feeling is the rally needs consolidation, a bottom between 10345 and 10450 would be a good base for the next leg. Interestingly enough it closed just above the 50 day SMA and just under the 200 day SMA
I'd like to point out that I'm not a great believer in the "global recovery" and believe we could be looking at a September crash but I'm willing to play this rally. Don't fight the trend - that and the number of doom and gloom type comments on CNBC ;-)

Also made a dreadful error when I typed in 5 instead of 0.5. The only good point is that I had the nerve to hold on and not panic and immediately close. Very, very lucky though as it coincided with Wall St opening which meant a positive spike, I could have held on but damn lucky I didn't. Is this my instinct kicking in - telling me to get out?

I've circled something which may be important - 3 spikes before the final capitulation

Never hold over the weekend (short or long)

OK, so the short on the DJ was not a bad trade, but forgetting to adjust the stop (it is guaranteed after all) on Sunday was a mistake and of course the market gapped up and I lost 40 odd pips. Silly really.

Thursday, 17 June 2010

Coil success in the EURUSD

When the market coils it is generally waiting for some news. For example today the currency market was waiting for the success of the Spanish bond auction (which I didn't know). I took my long position and at 9:00am as if by magic the pair took a rocket ride.
Lots of reason for the long position - lots of shorts out there bearish on the euro, stochastics in the "overbought" area (don't know if this applies to daily as much to hourly in a trending market)
A good point raised by a poster on the DT site is that it's the ECB underwriting the bond auction by buying the bonds ... surely this is effectively just money printing?

Also another tip I read in the "Master Swing Trader" is not to try and short the triple top as it may become a break out

Tuesday, 15 June 2010

Bad volatility pile up

A particularly bad day for a currency deal, or maybe more of a case of the wrong setup?
The good points were that I tried to wait until the move was underway and I put in a stop not far above the range of the most recent of the bars. Regretted not putting in a higher stop at the time but the move went right up to 14816
The bad point was that I put too much on, and that at 10am the trade was in a good profit before bouncing up at a great velocity
The circled points are what are theorectically better setups - early morning lots of narrow bars. I had too many average sized bars which morphed into larger bars still with no sense of direction - only whipsaws

DJIA broke strongly above 10240 to finish 10400. This is close to text book, but the move was almost straight up giving no chance to jump on. More proof that it's better to stay in once a move has begun because jumping in halfway up is very tricky

Monday, 14 June 2010

Resistance at 10240

I think the index's failure to close over 10240 is not a good sign. However if we then see more narrow bars created as we moved toward June's TWW then it could be a coil developing for a big push upwards.
If the index drops sharply over the next 2 days then it looks like this is just prelude to a big drop
Gold is holding just above it's 20 day moving average. Without a big push over the next week it could very well drop away.
Have done some minor bits of dealing. Lost a small amout today (went from +20 to -15) but I guessed correctly that past a certain point the index would keep dropping which it did another 30 points past my stop loss.

Thursday, 10 June 2010

Short Gold @ 1216.46

Dipping RSI vs the new top. Could be the slight dip before the rise after the handle of the cup of course

Sometimes ya just gotta pull the trigger

It took a lot of courage (or foolishness) but I stuck in another long position at 9900 with a stop loss at 9800. If it drops to 9800 it's going all the way to 9500 at least.

This time I played the 10% rule. Both positions were closed (ig at 20%). It was a shame because I felt there was more mileage, especially when there was a drop to 10060 at approx 5pm. Unfortunately where I was I can't spend anymore than 2-3 mins to look at the charts. Having said that it is dangerous to add to the position when all the indicators are at max - failed yesterday ... worked today. 50/50 is not really good enough
The ideal time to max out would have been at 9am when good overnight strength showed a mild pullback

Wednesday, 9 June 2010

3 strikes and you're out

If the index cannot make and hold above 10050 then it will probably drop like a stone to 9500. Looks like a bear flag or pennant is forming here

Don't ignore the indicators?

Tried my trick of increasing the size of the position - unfortunately I deliberately ignored the indicators. Perhaps it worked yesterday because the RSI was in the middle of it's range this time RSI was into the top end, but well who knows?
Foolishly I compounded the error by going long several times as it continued to drop the worst was probably 9961, having managed to get out at 9973, the hourly bar had no shadow
A shadow is required before any reversal positions are taken and even this is no guarantee.

I was probably affected by not being able to put in more money at the initial buy in point having made myself wait and wait correctly. More due to not wanting to be flagged up on the stupid ws report

Tuesday, 8 June 2010

The 4 hour chart

The coil as it appears on the 4 hour chart

Changed my mind ... again!

My first instinct upon looking at the "hourly triple top pattern" was to short. Then I looked closer, this looked more like some kind of ascending triangle type pattern - the support was clearly rising.
So I decided to exit my short, which I managed without losing any money and entered a long position at 9864. My thinking? A possible short squeeze was on the way and if any move that could break above 9885 could force short positions to start covering and a hold at 9900 would put the shorts in serious trouble.

Admittedly my trading plan was not "well defined" but I figured a drop to 9810 would be a very bad sign. Although I was very tempted to increase my position when the index dropped to ~9840 I decided to hold fire - after all, one can never be sure.

Contrary to my normal reasoning when the index broke above 9900 and held there I decided to "play with the house's money" and increase my position.

Eventually I closed both at 9928. There was more mileaged to be gained but I played my "10 percent" rule. When the profit reaches 10% of the fund - close the position (similar to my old poker rule of leaving the table after a doubling or tripling up). Actually it achieved 23% but it's learning to ride the wave as it occurs.

Monday, 7 June 2010

Short GBPUSD @ 14525

This time wanted to short but instead of diving in using the Fib numbers took an educated guess at the level at which it could reach before falling back (the general trend being down) Typed in 14550 first then decided to take 25 pips off the top to compensate. As it happens the pair go to 14563. Put the order in at approx 12:30 and it executed at 14:56 Close at 14482

Also followed my own advice and avoided a gold short as there was a powerful, possibly short covering rally today

Friday, 4 June 2010

Buy on rumour - Sell on news

I think the past few days have been a big buy on the rumour - sell on the news* movement. Subconciously I have suspected this - then totally forgot it this morning when I went long on the currency

I think I need to write down everything ... and I mean everything

* Apparently Fool pooh pooh this but I think it's very important to traders

Wrong again

Well, should have gone with the GBPUSD short. But this is the danger of being in the market when a particularly important piece of data is released i.e. this time the US jobs report

With all the indicators at their lowest point and the DJ at under 10000 I thought worth a punt. The only good thing about that decision was I somehow managed to stop closing the position right at the bottom and closed on a bounce

Long GBPUSD 14638

Based on flag formation and the "coiled spring" look
Stop at 14500 but probably try and get out before then if things look bad

Changing my mind

Let's wait until after the jobs report. I don't like the flag formation either for shorts.

Short GBPUSD 16434

Why I am taking this short?
The daily, hourly and 10 min stochastics indicators are all turning. Also cable is at the moment still in a major downtrend
What are the dangers?
A favourable jobs report could cause a strong rally. Also possibly the market is displaying a "coiled spring" formation in the hourly graph

Thursday, 3 June 2010

10 min

the 10 minute graph

Daily formation and entry/exit points

Daily formation and entry/exit points - is there an Elliott wave there?

Elliott wave formation on the DJ

I think I spotted an Elliott wave formation on the Wall Street Daily (DJIA). My initial long was a bit too early, but I added to it on another account at close to the lowest point.
The smaller arrows show when I had another stab as I felt there was a short covering rally occuring
When the index started to fall late in the day was it necessary to absorb the loss of approx 50 (yeah thanks) or could the charts show that such a heavy fall through the 38% and 50% fib levels would inevitably end with an almost 100% fall? Bounces have occured before. Maybe always play the 10% rule? But where do you get back in?
The difficulty now is I think I see the formation everywhere!

A bit of silliness

After a really wonderful day yesterday I did a bit of a stupid short in the belief I could read the market - how foolish. I must get the demo account up and running so that if this urge overcomes me I can fire up the demo account and see how it pans out. At least I only lost 27

Also wrestled with my myself today to overcome the terrible urge to rebuy at about 10300. In fact I did but sensibly after poring over the stochastics and RSI and everything screaming at me that the market was overbought I eventually closed for -9. I mean I really struggled, I was petrified when the market moved overnight that I would miss the possibility of a substantial rally. I was correct though as it crawled to about 10320 before dropping fairly quickly to touch 10170

So I lost -36 overall but it could have been much worse

A long chance did show itself at approx 10190 but I already had some exposure (long 10235) so decided against adding to position plus I was at work and need to spend as little time as possible in the site.

Tuesday, 1 June 2010

Amazingly volatility

Shocking volatility today. At one point I had in probability 500 worth of profit sitting on the table. Unfortunately left it all sitting on the table and actually recorded a loss at the end of the evening. I broke (not for the first time) the prime rule - my rule - which is if the profit equals 10% of the fund close the position. The problem with coming out of a position is where do you get back in? I am not a sophisticated enough trader to determine this yet, and I would have got in again and made a bigger loss.
I use this as training - is it right to look at the profits eroding if you think the potential is greater down the line?

Despite this, it looks like the last gasp of an Elliott wave formation and provided the index doesn't collapse overnight we could see a substantial rally within the next week. Funny thing is I was looking at the chart and thinking "I can't see the last portion of the wave" ;-)

Bad move on the long at 10162

shoulda done nothing. Also a good move would be to set up a demo account somewhere to make sure if the overwhelming urge to deal/catch falling knives/rockets overcame me I can go to the demo a/c

Monday, 31 May 2010

Long DJ @ 10162

I think an Elliott wave formation (p.87/89 ) has just finished and there will be a substantial rally despite the bad news that abounds. The market has a habit of confounding us all, and especially all the commentators. In fact it may go on to make new highs this summer before doing what I think it will do and crash in the autumn.

Investor sentiment is bouncing between extreme fear and extreme greed and the next leg will probably be greed as previous sellers try and get back into the market

Small profit on long GBPUSD

66 pip profit taken at 14487 at 8:30am which is approx 5% of fund. At the moment the currency has shown signs of bouncing off the daily MA20 resistance (today) so maybe putting in an order selling at 14515 would have been better?

Long GBPUSD @ 14418

Once again the daily, hourly and 10 min stochs are all in alignment ie at the bottom of the range so have gone long here

Short update

Looking at the FTSE SEP and adding fib lines it seems disturbingly for my short it seems to have support at the 38.2% line. So I have reduced the position :-(

Friday, 28 May 2010

The daily view

So we can see the entire course of events play themselves out.

Recording the fuck up

Where I went in, changed my mind and finally went for it. The worse thing is I would have shorted again at some point even if I had not shorted at 9am on the 27th.
The green arrows are the entry points. The red arrow is where I changed my mind.

If you've missed it - you've missed it

Look for other opportunities elsewhere

Thursday, 27 May 2010

The end again

Looks like I've really gone an done it this time. I knew there was the potential for a rally but I didn't want to reduce as I had done this before with the AUDUSD short and regretted it. Far too much on. I get the feeling this is a short covering rally but could easily turn into a full blown actual rally. A full rally could create a head and shoulders set up, but it will be too late for me by then.
Another rally in Asia and I'm finished.

Wednesday, 26 May 2010

Fools rush in

Affected by my failure to pull the trigger when the FTSE stood at I was unable to step back to review the big picture and went short on the FTSE at ~4950* - far far below a sensible entry point. Then went in again later in the evening just before the DJ blasted upwards. As sensible move at this point would possibly have been to buy FTSE to offset the loss?

However I closed the EURUSD short in profit this morning having the feeling there was no more gain to be had, after increasing overnight. This allowed me to reduce the exposure on the short to 1.50

* based on adding 50 to SEP futures

Tuesday, 25 May 2010

Short EURUSD @12383

It's forward so add about 10 pts

Couldn't pull the trigger last night on short FTSE Sep at 5003 - big mistake. Order missed by what 3-4 pts. Gutting isn't it?

Monday, 24 May 2010


Right to be dealing at 7-9am, wrong to hold a long position especially in a falling market. Shoulda took the money and run at 8:30 when I'd captured a half cent movement. The currency heads down at the slightest whiff of trouble

Put too much on as well.

Friday, 21 May 2010

Bad call

The market rebounded in the closing 20 mins to 10196. This would have annilihated me! I would rather be right and have less profit than be wrong yet be in the money - and is this the wrong mindset too.
So I was correct in
1) Not being greedy - the profit reached 20% of the fund so I took this. If you could do this enough times it wouldn't be long before we could see parity
2) Out of the market before the funny stuff at the end

I was wrong in
1) Thought there would be a hefty fall - but this rebound could have been short covering, for profit taking

To be honest you could go insane

Close ~10066

Although I feel once again the market has more downside considering I just recouped most of the mad, depressing losses ie just made back 20% of the fund.
How did I do this? I applied some experience of the market to the current situation and backed it with serious money - 2 GBP a point. Also I took the major step of selling again when the market came back to my level. Missed out a chance to short when the market when 30 points past my initial level, just couldn't pull the trigger. It was seriously hairy though watching the money rack up ...
One of the other things was that I wanted to be out of the market by 8:30 because it does strange things in the closing period
Made a poor decision to try and add to my GBPUSD short - must remember this is the quiet period of the currency markets and there's no money to be made here.

My prediction? ~ 10020

I have a feeling GBPUSD will appreciate quite seriously next week

Short WallSt at 10200

If you were a fund manager would you want to be in the market over the weekend? I wouldn't have thought so there being the amount of uncertainty in the world. I would be surprised if the market finished a long way up - I think you'd have to be a brave man to start buying stocks now.

Thursday, 20 May 2010

Market collapse

I think we are in the midst of a full blown market collapse. I thought it would hold today but we're talking major stock dump.

FTSE at 4000 by mid June?

Shoulda held that FTSE short eh?

Long GBPUSD @ 14362

Are the shorters getting a bit itchy?

Rethink my FTSE short

I think a short at this level is wrong so have decided to close it

P&L -13

Was I right about AUDUSD or what? Now at 8310 (SEP 8205)

Wednesday, 19 May 2010

Long GBPUSD close at 14400

Good 80pip profit here - but hairy no doubt about that with a huge bout of volatility at about 8:10 causing a 40 pip move. The bet was auto closed as I felt that above 14400 was going to be a bit shaky

Short the FTSE SEP at 5113. Not at all ideal - min bet is 2GBP causing an immediate 10GBP loss to resize the bet. Would have much preferred to short at +5200 but really who's to say what will happen

GBPUSD support turn?

Because I have so little money to play with I reduce my stake to 0.35. All the indicators seem to indicate possible a turn in GBPUSD
R = 14453, 14609
P = 14365
S = 14208, 14119

Once again an anti trend trade

Tuesday, 18 May 2010


Another attempt to catch a falling knife. Luckily got out of it with only a 2GBP loss by buying in lower.
Having said that could have held a bit longer to see profit but no matter
Also avoided silliness by attempting to sell EURUSD as a hedge. It bounced and would have left me farked

Long WallSt @ 10532

Can't see why Wall St dropped nearly 1% from the bell. Doesn't look like a falling knife ...
Immediate position reduction to 0.5 per point


Have closed the position (took the money and ran). Over 200 pip profit
Looks like the markets are consolidating a bit
Want to short FTSE but it costs 2GBP a pip so with position sizing auto loss of 5 to 6 pounds makes it problematic

Monday, 17 May 2010

What to do

My AUDUSD short is showing a 200 pip profit. Pity its only at 25p a point. But do I take the profit now? Or is there more to come?
My feeling is to take a profit, but with it breaching what looked like a support level there may be more to come, and it is a very long bet.
The image seems to show that the selling could very well accelerate

Didn't go long on US Crude today - good choice

Friday, 14 May 2010

Repeating the same mistakes

Well despite having stated before what an important support level ~12600 for the EURUSD (well, I thought I did but can't find any posts). Having said that I once again tried to go against the flow and got myself a -70 pip loss going long on EURUSD Why?!? Even worse I tried increasing the size to 0.40.
However it was right to take the RIO profit - FTSE fell nearly 190 points today dragging everything with it except WOS strangely enough

Try not to short GOLD please how ever tempting it may be

And for god sake read this blog! It's not worth recording all your thoughts feelings and theories if you're not going to read them!

Have noticed AUDEUR still isn't rising as far as I would expect it should. Why is this? Is there a correction in store?

Thursday, 13 May 2010

Some success

Closed the bet on RIO.L with a profit of ~35. The process of immediately halving the bet size is costing money, but then again if I'd thought of doing this I could have held my previous trade open all the way through. Closed at approx 1pm @3375 as didn't want to have it roll again. It could have more legs maybe?

Also closed EURUSD @ 12557

Now trying to reduce my exposure on the AUDUSD short

As we draw to the middle of May can we expect the poor performance of the stock market in this period to play out again. Disturbingly we are in the second term of Obama's term with a poor January? Is there a second drop in the offing. I think there is.
Look to short the FTSE at +5700? Short the DJ at +10900?

Wednesday, 12 May 2010

Short EURUSD @ 12630

This looks like a key support level which of course means it could be dangerous as short reversals could cause a huge rally.

Quick update

Need to record while still fresh in my mind

Unfortunately a bit of a muck up re the EURUSD short. Absolutely correct although maybe should have taken profits at +50 pips. Left it overnight which is always a bit of a gamble to find it -40 pips down in the morning, shorted again at -60 pips (correct) but unfortunately so busy trying to juggle my open positions that I didn't set the stop at my usual 120 pip level and got whip sawed out. God damn.

Made a +40 pip profit today going long on GBPUSD specifically on a possible rally predicted. Did the trade at 7:30 out by approx 8:30. These are the most volatile times for dealing this pair. Dealt twice rather than staying in

GBPUSD reached 15040 then had a shocking turnaround and finished a cent down

Sunday, 9 May 2010

Short EURUSD @ 12914

Euro opened (gapped) up a long way - I haven't the faintest idea why - maybe because of the bailout? However, this looks like a shorting opportunity so went short with 0.25 using my new position sizing technique ;-)

Friday, 7 May 2010

Limit orders

This time rather than hurl myself into the market I tried a limit order for WSD short at 10400. Certainly at first appearance a better way of doint things
Also used the close position popup to size the deal - something I'd wish I'd seen when I had the RIO deal going definitely would have reduced to 0.50
For the record - the market jumped up over 10400 held on an reduced exposure by 0.25 at start point. Took another 0.25 profit and finally closed at +50 pips

P&L +31

Reduced exposure on AUDUSD short by 0.10. Current size is 0.40

P&L -4

Buying at the top / Selling at the bottom

I wonder if this tendency is because the price is pausing at these points? Pausing long enough to execute at the wrong time?

The final deal

God what an evening. Shall I repeat my manta?
Don't try and catch falling knives

Given that despite the euro being in horrendous trouble is actually gaining against the aussie it really looks to me as if the aussie is heading for a correction.
But rather than reverse my previous thinking with AUDEUR I have decided to go short long term on AUDUSD with a plan to just leave it

Sell AUDUSD Forward Sep @ 8730 (stop 9400)

My stop is at 9400 which is most of what remains of the tatters of my account!

Thursday, 6 May 2010

The wrong thing at the wrong time

Every time the wrong direction at the wrong time

RIO -124
AUDEUR stock market wipeout plunged by - 50
Trying to sell AUDEUR -14

Total FAIL

Lessons to be learned
Don't try and catch a falling knife no matter how much the indicators shout at you

Hideous Risk

Long RIO @ 3227- Christ the spread is huge!!!!!

Pivot 3203, S1 = 3115, R1 = 3282, S2= 3037, R2 = 3370

Long AUDEUR @ 7071

Missed the AUDEUR by about 10 pips so in at this level

EURUSD P = 12866, S1 = 12736, S2 = 12659, R1 = 12943, R2 = 13073

Wednesday, 5 May 2010

Shoulda held in there

AUD jumped from 7015 to 7050 and kept rising against EUR at approx 15:00. Another moral victory ;-)

Managed to go short GBPUSD at 10:27 which was good move to regain. Out now as currency could be greatly effected by news

P&L 14

Setting up order to go long AUDEUR at 7035 which is between pivot point a support according to calculator (P = 7053, S1 = 7025, S2 = 6974)


Didn't do what I expected overnight so closed

P&L -3

Went long on GBPUSD 15175 0.75 (up from my usual 0.50) per pt. All indicators on up trend, then dropped away closed at 15134 dropping through a resistance at ~15150

P&L -31

Tuesday, 4 May 2010

Long AUDEUR @ 7015

I noticed that the aussie did not fall as much as I thought it might and that even as I said before go on to make new highs.
With my other theory of once the %K indicator crosses into the >75 region with RSI lagging is a time to go long I have gone long here. Also I note that of all the central banks Australia is the only one putting it's rates up, 4.50% currently.
As it happens hourly and daily indicators are very similar

Close EURAUD @ 6981

Have decided to come out of this one with a small profit. I feel it is a bit of a risky bet as the euro is a dodgy currency at the moment however much the Australia seems to be marching headlong into it's own house price bubble. Australian Central Bank interest rates 4.25% (up on 06/04/10)

It could well press on to make new highs from here

P&L 15

Note : they raised them again to 4.5% today at 7am

Monday, 3 May 2010

Short AUD/EUR @ 7012

I noticed that the AUDEUR is right at the top of its range. Also the daily RSI is dropping even though the price is rising, and the hourly and daily stochatics have turned over. However, this could mean nothing, and could be far too early, but note the big drop the previous night
Giving this one 88 pips of breathing room

Wall Street Daily quickie

My "feeling" was that with the Greek deal and no other particularly bad news I reckon that buying some Wall Street before the bell would be a good trade. Also the setup look good so I went long at 13:48 11055

As it happens I was correct and sold with a 20 pip profit (11075). A trade lasting about an hour. Of course I sold out too early as of writing the index stands at 11100. However it's easy to forget that the deal dropped to -18 at one point.

I think I should be looking for a 2:1 profit margin?

P&L +20

Moral victory

Closed deal for +5 profit but a moral victory as the graph shows. Now must wait until a similar set up shows itself on other currency pairs

Not taking this one

For posterity here is a deal I have decided to reject as the indicators for daily are the exact opposite of the hourly. The hourly indicates buy - the daily says sell

Sunday, 2 May 2010

Short EUR/USD @ 13329

Probably a bit too early with this one and really should have waited, therefore will allow a fair margin. Stop at 13410
Using my new theory of all RSI, MACD and Stochatics are close to the top although MACD is further ahead than the others

Saturday, 1 May 2010

Back where I started

After a bad morning tried to get back in the evening. Another mistake really - as I already know that after 19:00 the volatility drops, and without volatility profits are sparse. Still - went for a short on 15278 GBPUSD because of my "setup" ie stochastics crossing into the <20 and RSI still high. However lost faith and closed at 15301 20:54 (mainly because I wasn't sure when the market would close). The pair then proceeded to do exactly what I predicted and dropped to 15267. As before though a poor trade because without volatility these trades don't work properly.

A better trade would have been short on Wall Street Daily at 19:30 when I opened the dealing platform at 10087. My feeling was of a late selloff. As it happens I did take a short at 11020 and closed a 11015 right at the end of the day when the selloff gained a bit of momentum. Was this instinct or just guessing

P&L - 12

Back where I started!

Friday, 30 April 2010

Follow your instincts

Interesting scenario today. I opened up a long position on GBPUSD for the 7:30-8am surge. It arrived then died away. At the same time I noticed that the EURGBP was in a "setup".
I had both open at approx 8:30 and despite that my instincts were to go with the EURGBP because the stochastics for GBPUSD were in the >70 for longer than I though would be good and RSI was dropping and the EURGBP was showing stronger signs of trending up I went with the GBPUSD because I reckon I know more about it's movements.

P&L -5 (EURGBP) 8:30am
P&L -18 (GBPUSD) 11:30am

In hindsight should have gone with my instincts?

Wednesday, 28 April 2010

Evening deal

"Traditional" trading thinking would have it that once the stochastics move into the the >80 territory it is in overbought territory, and <20 territory is oversold. On examination of charts would seem to indicate actually going long on the "overbought" signal and short on the "oversold" is a more succesful route as the stock keeps trending up until the point at which it changes direction. It is then at the trader's discretion to take a profit.
This would seem to avoid the prediction trap that I have been falling into.


P&L = +1 woot!

Maybe use RSI to dectect once a trade should be closed when it moves into >70 territory (overbought) <30 (oversold)

Morning deal

With my "research" showing that a lot of action occurs at between 7 and 9am I decided to do a quick bit of dealing. Waited until there was a surge down then when short 1
Open 15221
Close 15209
P & L +12
Very short deal space
The question is : is this luck or actually instinct?

Tuesday, 27 April 2010

Well, after nearly a year away from dealing because of a horrendous loss trying to be too clever on a bond deal.
Basically I tried to set a buy above and sell below based on when the Fed decided to either continue or stop their QE policy. What actually happened was that the market oscillated wildly first rising to my buy before dropping to the stop loss at the same time activating the sell position before rising to it's stop loss end result was an 800 GBP loss.
On my other account I could have made about 100 on a USDJPY short but I failed to cash in and the position reversed.

So slowly getting back to trading. Have noticed that most of the GBPUSD action seems to occur at about 7-9am then again at approx 3pm. It would be best to deal here I think. Have made 3 small but positive deals

However made a poor deal today going long on EURUSD 0.5GBP. Unfamilarity with the movements of this pair was my downfall? I thought I could see a double bottom and thought the bad news had been priced in. P/L -47 (could have been worse but I shut it down) Also a credit agency downgrade on Portugal smashed the euro

Correctly surmised that there would be panic sell on Wall Street about 45mins to half and hour before the end so went short 1 GBP a point. Did this twice for a profit of 23GBP but if I had just stayed in I could have tripled this. Oh well, live and learn

Have my eye on Next as a short