Long DJ @ 10162

I think an Elliott wave formation (p.87/89 ) has just finished and there will be a substantial rally despite the bad news that abounds. The market has a habit of confounding us all, and especially all the commentators. In fact it may go on to make new highs this summer before doing what I think it will do and crash in the autumn.

Investor sentiment is bouncing between extreme fear and extreme greed and the next leg will probably be greed as previous sellers try and get back into the market

Small profit on long GBPUSD

66 pip profit taken at 14487 at 8:30am which is approx 5% of fund. At the moment the currency has shown signs of bouncing off the daily MA20 resistance (today) so maybe putting in an order selling at 14515 would have been better?

Long GBPUSD @ 14418

Once again the daily, hourly and 10 min stochs are all in alignment ie at the bottom of the range so have gone long here

Short update

Looking at the FTSE SEP and adding fib lines it seems disturbingly for my short it seems to have support at the 38.2% line. So I have reduced the position :-(

The daily view

So we can see the entire course of events play themselves out.

Recording the fuck up

Where I went in, changed my mind and finally went for it. The worse thing is I would have shorted again at some point even if I had not shorted at 9am on the 27th.
The green arrows are the entry points. The red arrow is where I changed my mind.

If you've missed it - you've missed it

Look for other opportunities elsewhere

The end again

Looks like I've really gone an done it this time. I knew there was the potential for a rally but I didn't want to reduce as I had done this before with the AUDUSD short and regretted it. Far too much on. I get the feeling this is a short covering rally but could easily turn into a full blown actual rally. A full rally could create a head and shoulders set up, but it will be too late for me by then.
Another rally in Asia and I'm finished.

Fools rush in

Affected by my failure to pull the trigger when the FTSE stood at I was unable to step back to review the big picture and went short on the FTSE at ~4950* - far far below a sensible entry point. Then went in again later in the evening just before the DJ blasted upwards. As sensible move at this point would possibly have been to buy FTSE to offset the loss?

However I closed the EURUSD short in profit this morning having the feeling there was no more gain to be had, after increasing overnight. This allowed me to reduce the exposure on the short to 1.50

* based on adding 50 to SEP futures

Short EURUSD @12383

It's forward so add about 10 pts

Couldn't pull the trigger last night on short FTSE Sep at 5003 - big mistake. Order missed by what 3-4 pts. Gutting isn't it?

Oopsy

Right to be dealing at 7-9am, wrong to hold a long position especially in a falling market. Shoulda took the money and run at 8:30 when I'd captured a half cent movement. The currency heads down at the slightest whiff of trouble

Put too much on as well.

Bad call

The market rebounded in the closing 20 mins to 10196. This would have annilihated me! I would rather be right and have less profit than be wrong yet be in the money - and is this the wrong mindset too.
So I was correct in
1) Not being greedy - the profit reached 20% of the fund so I took this. If you could do this enough times it wouldn't be long before we could see parity
2) Out of the market before the funny stuff at the end

I was wrong in
1) Thought there would be a hefty fall - but this rebound could have been short covering, for profit taking

To be honest you could go insane

Close ~10066

Although I feel once again the market has more downside considering I just recouped most of the mad, depressing losses ie just made back 20% of the fund.
How did I do this? I applied some experience of the market to the current situation and backed it with serious money - 2 GBP a point. Also I took the major step of selling again when the market came back to my level. Missed out a chance to short when the market when 30 points past my initial level, just couldn't pull the trigger. It was seriously hairy though watching the money rack up ...
One of the other things was that I wanted to be out of the market by 8:30 because it does strange things in the closing period
Made a poor decision to try and add to my GBPUSD short - must remember this is the quiet period of the currency markets and there's no money to be made here.

My prediction? ~ 10020

I have a feeling GBPUSD will appreciate quite seriously next week

Short WallSt at 10200

If you were a fund manager would you want to be in the market over the weekend? I wouldn't have thought so there being the amount of uncertainty in the world. I would be surprised if the market finished a long way up - I think you'd have to be a brave man to start buying stocks now.

Market collapse

I think we are in the midst of a full blown market collapse. I thought it would hold today but we're talking major stock dump.

FTSE at 4000 by mid June?

Shoulda held that FTSE short eh?

Long GBPUSD @ 14362

Are the shorters getting a bit itchy?

Rethink my FTSE short

I think a short at this level is wrong so have decided to close it

P&L -13

Was I right about AUDUSD or what? Now at 8310 (SEP 8205)

Long GBPUSD close at 14400

Good 80pip profit here - but hairy no doubt about that with a huge bout of volatility at about 8:10 causing a 40 pip move. The bet was auto closed as I felt that above 14400 was going to be a bit shaky

Short the FTSE SEP at 5113. Not at all ideal - min bet is 2GBP causing an immediate 10GBP loss to resize the bet. Would have much preferred to short at +5200 but really who's to say what will happen

GBPUSD support turn?

Because I have so little money to play with I reduce my stake to 0.35. All the indicators seem to indicate possible a turn in GBPUSD
R = 14453, 14609
P = 14365
S = 14208, 14119

Once again an anti trend trade

Oops

Another attempt to catch a falling knife. Luckily got out of it with only a 2GBP loss by buying in lower.
Having said that could have held a bit longer to see profit but no matter
Also avoided silliness by attempting to sell EURUSD as a hedge. It bounced and would have left me farked

Long WallSt @ 10532

Can't see why Wall St dropped nearly 1% from the bell. Doesn't look like a falling knife ...
Immediate position reduction to 0.5 per point

Close AUDUSD

Have closed the position (took the money and ran). Over 200 pip profit
Looks like the markets are consolidating a bit
Want to short FTSE but it costs 2GBP a pip so with position sizing auto loss of 5 to 6 pounds makes it problematic

What to do

My AUDUSD short is showing a 200 pip profit. Pity its only at 25p a point. But do I take the profit now? Or is there more to come?
My feeling is to take a profit, but with it breaching what looked like a support level there may be more to come, and it is a very long bet.
The image seems to show that the selling could very well accelerate

Didn't go long on US Crude today - good choice

Repeating the same mistakes

Well despite having stated before what an important support level ~12600 for the EURUSD (well, I thought I did but can't find any posts). Having said that I once again tried to go against the flow and got myself a -70 pip loss going long on EURUSD Why?!? Even worse I tried increasing the size to 0.40.
However it was right to take the RIO profit - FTSE fell nearly 190 points today dragging everything with it except WOS strangely enough

Try not to short GOLD please how ever tempting it may be

And for god sake read this blog! It's not worth recording all your thoughts feelings and theories if you're not going to read them!

Have noticed AUDEUR still isn't rising as far as I would expect it should. Why is this? Is there a correction in store?

Some success

Closed the bet on RIO.L with a profit of ~35. The process of immediately halving the bet size is costing money, but then again if I'd thought of doing this I could have held my previous trade open all the way through. Closed at approx 1pm @3375 as didn't want to have it roll again. It could have more legs maybe?

Also closed EURUSD @ 12557

Now trying to reduce my exposure on the AUDUSD short

As we draw to the middle of May can we expect the poor performance of the stock market in this period to play out again. Disturbingly we are in the second term of Obama's term with a poor January? Is there a second drop in the offing. I think there is.
Look to short the FTSE at +5700? Short the DJ at +10900?

Short EURUSD @ 12630

This looks like a key support level which of course means it could be dangerous as short reversals could cause a huge rally.

Quick update

Need to record while still fresh in my mind

Unfortunately a bit of a muck up re the EURUSD short. Absolutely correct although maybe should have taken profits at +50 pips. Left it overnight which is always a bit of a gamble to find it -40 pips down in the morning, shorted again at -60 pips (correct) but unfortunately so busy trying to juggle my open positions that I didn't set the stop at my usual 120 pip level and got whip sawed out. God damn.

Made a +40 pip profit today going long on GBPUSD specifically on a possible rally predicted. Did the trade at 7:30 out by approx 8:30. These are the most volatile times for dealing this pair. Dealt twice rather than staying in

GBPUSD reached 15040 then had a shocking turnaround and finished a cent down

Short EURUSD @ 12914

Euro opened (gapped) up a long way - I haven't the faintest idea why - maybe because of the bailout? However, this looks like a shorting opportunity so went short with 0.25 using my new position sizing technique ;-)

Limit orders

This time rather than hurl myself into the market I tried a limit order for WSD short at 10400. Certainly at first appearance a better way of doint things
Also used the close position popup to size the deal - something I'd wish I'd seen when I had the RIO deal going definitely would have reduced to 0.50
For the record - the market jumped up over 10400 held on an reduced exposure by 0.25 at start point. Took another 0.25 profit and finally closed at +50 pips

P&L +31

Reduced exposure on AUDUSD short by 0.10. Current size is 0.40

P&L -4

Buying at the top / Selling at the bottom

I wonder if this tendency is because the price is pausing at these points? Pausing long enough to execute at the wrong time?

The final deal

God what an evening. Shall I repeat my manta?
Don't try and catch falling knives

Given that despite the euro being in horrendous trouble is actually gaining against the aussie it really looks to me as if the aussie is heading for a correction.
But rather than reverse my previous thinking with AUDEUR I have decided to go short long term on AUDUSD with a plan to just leave it

Sell AUDUSD Forward Sep @ 8730 (stop 9400)

My stop is at 9400 which is most of what remains of the tatters of my account!

The wrong thing at the wrong time

Every time the wrong direction at the wrong time

RIO -124
AUDEUR stock market wipeout plunged by - 50
Trying to sell AUDEUR -14

Total FAIL

Lessons to be learned
Don't try and catch a falling knife no matter how much the indicators shout at you

Hideous Risk

Long RIO @ 3227- Christ the spread is huge!!!!!

Pivot 3203, S1 = 3115, R1 = 3282, S2= 3037, R2 = 3370

Long AUDEUR @ 7071

Missed the AUDEUR by about 10 pips so in at this level

EURUSD P = 12866, S1 = 12736, S2 = 12659, R1 = 12943, R2 = 13073

Shoulda held in there

AUD jumped from 7015 to 7050 and kept rising against EUR at approx 15:00. Another moral victory ;-)

Managed to go short GBPUSD at 10:27 which was good move to regain. Out now as currency could be greatly effected by news

P&L 14

Setting up order to go long AUDEUR at 7035 which is between pivot point a support according to calculator (P = 7053, S1 = 7025, S2 = 6974)

Close AUDEUR

Didn't do what I expected overnight so closed

P&L -3

Went long on GBPUSD 15175 0.75 (up from my usual 0.50) per pt. All indicators on up trend, then dropped away closed at 15134 dropping through a resistance at ~15150

P&L -31

Long AUDEUR @ 7015

I noticed that the aussie did not fall as much as I thought it might and that even as I said before go on to make new highs.
With my other theory of once the %K indicator crosses into the >75 region with RSI lagging is a time to go long I have gone long here. Also I note that of all the central banks Australia is the only one putting it's rates up, 4.50% currently.
As it happens hourly and daily indicators are very similar

Close EURAUD @ 6981

Have decided to come out of this one with a small profit. I feel it is a bit of a risky bet as the euro is a dodgy currency at the moment however much the Australia seems to be marching headlong into it's own house price bubble. Australian Central Bank interest rates 4.25% (up on 06/04/10)

It could well press on to make new highs from here

P&L 15

Note : they raised them again to 4.5% today at 7am

Short AUD/EUR @ 7012

I noticed that the AUDEUR is right at the top of its range. Also the daily RSI is dropping even though the price is rising, and the hourly and daily stochatics have turned over. However, this could mean nothing, and could be far too early, but note the big drop the previous night
Giving this one 88 pips of breathing room

Wall Street Daily quickie

My "feeling" was that with the Greek deal and no other particularly bad news I reckon that buying some Wall Street before the bell would be a good trade. Also the setup look good so I went long at 13:48 11055

As it happens I was correct and sold with a 20 pip profit (11075). A trade lasting about an hour. Of course I sold out too early as of writing the index stands at 11100. However it's easy to forget that the deal dropped to -18 at one point.

I think I should be looking for a 2:1 profit margin?

P&L +20

Moral victory

Closed deal for +5 profit but a moral victory as the graph shows. Now must wait until a similar set up shows itself on other currency pairs

Not taking this one

For posterity here is a deal I have decided to reject as the indicators for daily are the exact opposite of the hourly. The hourly indicates buy - the daily says sell

Short EUR/USD @ 13329

Probably a bit too early with this one and really should have waited, therefore will allow a fair margin. Stop at 13410
Using my new theory of all RSI, MACD and Stochatics are close to the top although MACD is further ahead than the others

Back where I started

After a bad morning tried to get back in the evening. Another mistake really - as I already know that after 19:00 the volatility drops, and without volatility profits are sparse. Still - went for a short on 15278 GBPUSD because of my "setup" ie stochastics crossing into the <20 and RSI still high. However lost faith and closed at 15301 20:54 (mainly because I wasn't sure when the market would close). The pair then proceeded to do exactly what I predicted and dropped to 15267. As before though a poor trade because without volatility these trades don't work properly.

A better trade would have been short on Wall Street Daily at 19:30 when I opened the dealing platform at 10087. My feeling was of a late selloff. As it happens I did take a short at 11020 and closed a 11015 right at the end of the day when the selloff gained a bit of momentum. Was this instinct or just guessing

P&L - 12

Back where I started!